MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why CMRC Stock slipped -0.86% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$3.44 -0.86% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.43
Commerce.com Inc. Series 1 (CMRC) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $285.0M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.43 (-0.34%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 7.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CMRC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CMRC SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (26% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 41% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 47.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+9/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 45% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$3.48-1.1% Next Q
47
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$3.44+3.5% Next Q
44
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$3.56-3.4% Next Q
42
CurrentGrade D-$3.44-7.6% Hist 90D α
39
Trajectory: D (47) → D- (39)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CMRC Turnaround Squeeze
While CMRC currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.13) and Max Pain ($3.61) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $5.83.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CMRC• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CMRC Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why CMRC Stock slipped -0.86% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Commerce.com Inc. Series 1 (CMRC) slipped -0.86% to $3.44, trading at 41% of its 52-week range ($1.95 – $5.55). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 41% of its 52-week range ($1.95 – $5.55) with RSI-14 at 47.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $3.44 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 78.7% gross margin and $25.5M annual free cash flow.
Live CMRC Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CMRC)
- ✓Walkthrough of CMRC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CMRC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +21.55%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $3.44H $3.49L $3.22C $3.44VOL 363.1K
RES: $4.07SUP: $1.18SMA50: $3.13SMA200: $2.94
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
CMRC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +2.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CMRC today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CMRC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CMRC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CMRC)
Technology Rank #557 of 714
⚔️ ARQQ vs CMRC Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (CMRC vs. ARQQ, XPER, MKTW, GRRR)
Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Commerce.com Inc. Series 1 (CMRC) ranks #557 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #450 by equity capitalization ($285.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MKTW leads on earnings valuation at 56.1x trailing P/E, while MKTW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 86.5% gross margin. MKTW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 58/100 (D+) compared with CMRC at 39/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMRC
ACTIVE
Commerce.com Inc. Series 1 | D- | 39/100 | — | 78.7% | -35.0% | -0.86% | $285.0M | Benchmark Subject |
| ARQQ Arqit Quantum Inc. | D | 48/100 | — | — | — | -4.71% | $306.3M | /arqq-vs-cmrc → |
| XPER Xperi Inc. | D- | 37/100 | — | — | -9.7% | +1.31% | $264.8M | /xper-vs-cmrc → |
| MKTW MarketWise Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 58/100 | 56.1x | 86.5% | 85.0% | -1.04% | $315.0M | /mktw-vs-cmrc → |
| GRRR Gorilla Technology Group Inc. | D | 48/100 | — | — | — | -9.32% | $252.1M | /grrr-vs-cmrc → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001626450In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Commerce.com Inc. Series 1 (CMRC) reported GAAP revenue of $342.3M (+2.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $332.9M , and +10.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$19.3M, operating cash flow of $25.5M, and free cash flow of $25.5M (-2.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, CMRC closed FY2025 with $308.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $342.3M | -$19.3M | $25.5M | $25.5M | $308.8M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $332.9M | -$27.0M | $26.3M | $26.3M | $340.3M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $309.4M | -$64.7M | -$24.2M | -$24.2M | — | — |
3. CMRC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs CMRC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Commerce.com Inc. Series 1 (NASDAQ: CMRC) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $3.44 (-0.86% 1D, market cap $285.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, CMRC ranks #557 in composite RQD confidence.
How does CMRC compare to ARQQ and XPER in the Technology sector?
Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), CMRC carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 78.7%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ARQQ (Arqit Quantum Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $306.3M) and XPER (Xperi Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -9.7%, cap $264.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MKTW leads on earnings multiple (56.1x) while MKTW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CMRC?
Per CMRC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001626450), Commerce.com Inc. Series 1 generated $342.3M in revenue (+2.8% YoY), -$19.3M in net income, and $25.5M in free cash flow against $308.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is CMRC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
CMRC last traded at $3.44 (-0.86% on volume of 428,326 shares), positioning the stock +9.90% above its 50-day simple moving average ($3.13) and +17.01% above its 200-day simple moving average ($2.94). Across its 52-week range of $1.95 to $5.55, CMRC sits at the 41.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($3.01 to $3.87).
CMRC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is CMRC stock moving today?
Why CMRC Stock slipped -0.86% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.