MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
Why CHMG Stock surged +2.10% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$87.60 +2.10% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $87.76
Chemung Financial Corp (CHMG) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $422.4M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $87.77 (+0.19%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 1.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CHMG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CHMG SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (24% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 99% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 64.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (21% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 8 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$80.54+0% Next Q
60
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C+$80.51+4.2% Next Q
63
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C+$83.88+4.4% Next Q
65
CurrentGrade C+$87.60+1.8% Hist 90D α
68
Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CHMG Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, CHMG faces multiple-compression risk if 28.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($82.52) or 200D SMA ($70.47) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($91.54) toward Bear Floor ($71.40).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CHMG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CHMG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why CHMG Stock surged +2.10% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Chemung Financial Corp (CHMG) surged +2.10% to $87.60, trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($50.05 – $87.99). Solid steady margins (6% return on capital), mixed timing at 28x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($50.05 – $87.99) with RSI-14 at 64.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.8% around $87.60 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $43.8M annual free cash flow.
Live CHMG Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 6h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 8h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (CHMG Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CHMG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +31.91%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $87.99H $87.99L $85.53C $87.60VOL 103.2K
RES: $87.30SUP: $77.27SMA50: $82.52SMA200: $70.47
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
CHMG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
21.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CHMG today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CHMG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CHMG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CHMG)
Financials Rank #230 of 1096
⚔️ FNLC vs CHMG Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CHMG vs. FNLC, CBAN, PCB, CZFS)
Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Chemung Financial Corp (CHMG) ranks #230 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #740 by equity capitalization ($422.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PCB leads on earnings valuation at 10.9x trailing P/E, while FNLC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.1% ROIC and — gross margin. FNLC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with CHMG at 68/100 (C+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHMG
ACTIVE
Chemung Financial Corp | C+ | 68/100 | 28.0x | — | 5.9% | +2.10% | $422.4M | Benchmark Subject |
| FNLC First Bancorp Inc (ME) | C+ | 69/100 | 12.0x | — | 12.1% | +0.77% | $412.5M | /fnlc-vs-chmg → |
| CBAN Colony Bankcorp Inc. | D- | 40/100 | 65.5x | — | 1.8% | +0.30% | $433.3M | /cban-vs-chmg → |
| PCB PCB Bancorp | C+ | 67/100 | 10.9x | — | 9.6% | +0.45% | $408.7M | /pcb-vs-chmg → |
| CZFS Citizens Financial Services Inc. | C | 64/100 | 11.2x | — | 10.8% | +1.26% | $408.4M | /czfs-vs-chmg → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000763563In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Chemung Financial Corp (CHMG) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $15.1M, operating cash flow of $45.5M, and free cash flow of $43.8M (+67.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, CHMG closed FY2025 with $2.71B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $15.1M | $45.5M | $43.8M | $2.71B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $23.7M | $29.8M | $26.2M | $2.78B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $25.0M | $30.9M | $30.9M | — | — |
3. CHMG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs CHMG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Chemung Financial Corp (NASDAQ: CHMG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $87.60 (+2.10% 1D, market cap $422.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, CHMG ranks #230 in composite RQD confidence.
How does CHMG compare to FNLC and CBAN in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), CHMG carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 28.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.9%. By comparison, FNLC (First Bancorp Inc (ME)) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 12.1%, cap $412.5M) and CBAN (Colony Bankcorp Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E 65.5x, ROIC 1.8%, cap $433.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PCB leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while FNLC leads on capital efficiency (12.1% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CHMG?
Per CHMG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000763563), Chemung Financial Corp generated $0 in revenue, $15.1M in net income, and $43.8M in free cash flow against $2.71B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is CHMG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
CHMG last traded at $87.60 (+2.10% on volume of 86,551 shares), positioning the stock +6.16% above its 50-day simple moving average ($82.52) and +24.31% above its 200-day simple moving average ($70.47). Across its 52-week range of $50.05 to $87.99, CHMG sits at the 99.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($83.40 to $91.80).
CHMG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is CHMG stock moving today?
Why CHMG Stock surged +2.10% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (6% return on capital), mixed timing at 28x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.