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Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$14.07 +4.22% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.15

Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $522.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.15 (+0.57%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CBIO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CBIO SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (30% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 6.36 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$14.91-20.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$11.84+8.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$12.82+9.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D$14.07-6.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (52) → D (44)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CBIO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CBIO currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($15.62) and Max Pain ($14.77) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $28.78.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CBIO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CBIO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

46.130 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

6.36>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

3 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE29% OF RANGE

L: $9$14.07H: $27

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 5 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on CBIO

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (25)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -13.86% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 6.36 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (43)

16/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like CBIO

✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CBIO)

✓Walkthrough of CBIO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CBIO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -37.10%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $13.94H $14.57L $13.31C $14.07VOL 189.5K

RES: $22.22SUP: $10.69SMA50: $15.62SMA200: $15.89

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CBIO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CBIO Butterfly Map → + Track CBIO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CBIO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CBIO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CBIO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CBIO)

Health Care Rank #505 of 1016 ⚔️ ARVN vs CBIO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (CBIO vs. ARVN, DMAC, INDP, OCS)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) ranks #505 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #439 by equity capitalization ($522.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CBIO leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while ARVN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -32.1% ROIC and — gross margin. OCS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 58/100 (D+) compared with CBIO at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CBIO ACTIVE Crescent Biopharma Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	-35.0%	+4.22%	$522.6M	Benchmark Subject
ARVN Arvinas Inc.	D-	37/100	—	—	-32.1%	+3.95%	$516.6M	/arvn-vs-cbio →
DMAC DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc.	E	34/100	—	—	-35.0%	-3.05%	$513.4M	/dmac-vs-cbio →
INDP Indaptus Therapeutics Inc.	D-	36/100	—	—	-35.0%	+0.30%	$513.0M	/indp-vs-cbio →
OCS Oculis Holding AG	D+	58/100	—	—	—	+3.26%	$507.5M	/ocs-vs-cbio →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001253689

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) reported GAAP revenue of $10.8M (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $153.9K, operating cash flow of -$71.5M, and free cash flow of -$72.5M (-132.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, CBIO closed FY2025 with $240.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 6.36, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$10.8M	$153.9K	-$71.5M	-$72.5M	$240.3M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$37.9K	-$31.1M	-$31.1M	$35.6M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$36.9K	-$34.9M	-$34.9M	—	—

3. CBIO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CBIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Crescent Biopharma Inc. (NASDAQ: CBIO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $14.07 (+4.22% 1D, market cap $522.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, CBIO ranks #505 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CBIO compare to ARVN and DMAC in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), CBIO carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ARVN (Arvinas Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -32.1%, cap $516.6M) and DMAC (DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $513.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CBIO leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ARVN leads on capital efficiency (-32.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CBIO?

Per CBIO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001253689), Crescent Biopharma Inc. generated $10.8M in revenue, $153.9K in net income, and -$72.5M in free cash flow against $240.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CBIO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CBIO last traded at $14.07 (+4.22% on volume of 378,034 shares), positioning the stock -9.92% below its 50-day simple moving average ($15.62) and -11.45% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.89). Across its 52-week range of $8.72 to $27.41, CBIO sits at the 28.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($12.31 to $15.83).

CBIO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell CBIO stock right now?

Crescent Biopharma Inc. (CBIO) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 44/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is CBIO's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

CBIO's 12-month base price target is $13.18 (range $10.28 to $28.78), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: CBIO RQD Cockpit CBIO 12M Forecast CBIO Earnings & Move CBIO Dividends & DRIP CBIO Insiders & 13F CBIO Whale Options CBIO Profit Sankey CBIO News & Why