Stock Ratings / Health Care / BIOA / earnings

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BioAge Labs Inc. (BIOA) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$5.94 0.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.93

BioAge Labs Inc. (BIOA) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $272.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.93 (-0.19%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BIOA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BIOA SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (34% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 5% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 43.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.66 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$6.34-23.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$4.84+5.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$5.10+16.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D$5.94-6.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (52) → D (44)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BIOA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BIOA currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.39) and Max Pain ($6.24) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $27.26.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BIOA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BIOA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.74 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

BIOA Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 44/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (44/100)Model Risk Weight (56/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$9.0M	-$80.6M	-$82.3M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	-$71.1M	-$51.9M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	-$63.9M	-$37.4M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BIOA)

✓Walkthrough of BIOA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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BIOA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -64.75%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $5.87H $5.94L $5.63C $5.94VOL 801.3K

RES: $31.70SUP: $4.10SMA50: $7.39SMA200: $15.82

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BIOA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BIOA Butterfly Map → + Track BIOA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BIOA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BIOA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BIOA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BIOA)

Health Care Rank #511 of 1016 ⚔️ LYEL vs BIOA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (BIOA vs. LYEL, LRMR, BCYC, RCKT)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, BioAge Labs Inc. (BIOA) ranks #511 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #532 by equity capitalization ($272.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BIOA leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while BIOA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. LRMR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 50/100 (D) compared with BIOA at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BIOA ACTIVE BioAge Labs Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	-35.0%	0.00%	$272.6M	Benchmark Subject
LYEL Lyell Immunopharma Inc.	D-	38/100	—	—	-35.0%	+3.43%	$277.0M	/lyel-vs-bioa →
LRMR Larimar Therapeutics Inc.	D	50/100	—	—	-35.0%	+5.12%	$277.4M	/lrmr-vs-bioa →
BCYC Bicycle Therapeutics plc	E	24/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.55%	$267.4M	/bcyc-vs-bioa →
RCKT Rocket Pharmaceuticals Inc.	E	31/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.55%	$278.8M	/rckt-vs-bioa →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001709941

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), BioAge Labs Inc. (BIOA) reported GAAP revenue of $9.0M (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$80.6M, operating cash flow of -$81.6M, and free cash flow of -$82.3M (-58.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, BIOA closed FY2025 with $294.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.66, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$9.0M	-$80.6M	-$81.6M	-$82.3M	$294.9M	$0
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$71.1M	-$51.5M	-$51.9M	$358.2M	$2.5M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$63.9M	-$37.4M	-$37.4M	—	—

3. BIOA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BIOA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, BioAge Labs Inc. (NASDAQ: BIOA) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $5.94 (0.00% 1D, market cap $272.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, BIOA ranks #511 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BIOA compare to LYEL and LRMR in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), BIOA carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, LYEL (Lyell Immunopharma Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $277.0M) and LRMR (Larimar Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $277.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BIOA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while BIOA leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BIOA?

Per BIOA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001709941), BioAge Labs Inc. generated $9.0M in revenue, -$80.6M in net income, and -$82.3M in free cash flow against $294.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BIOA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BIOA last traded at $5.94 (0.00% on volume of 845,276 shares), positioning the stock -19.62% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.39) and -62.45% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.82). Across its 52-week range of $4.81 to $25.96, BIOA sits at the 5.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($5.20 to $6.68).