Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / BGS / financials

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B&G Foods Inc. (BGS) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$2.26 +9.71% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.30

B&G Foods Inc. (BGS) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $183.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.30 (+1.56%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 3.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BGS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BGS SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (31% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 6% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 43.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 14 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$2.40-4.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$2.29-8.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$2.10+7.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$2.26-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BGS Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BGS currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.84) and Max Pain ($2.37) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.70.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BGS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BGS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 2, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How BGS Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$70.7M (3.9% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $2.06B

FY24

Rev $1.93B

FY25

Rev $1.83B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$1.83B	21.8%	5.3%	-$43.3M	$70.7M	3.3%
FY 2024	$1.93B	21.8%	-9.2%	-$251.3M	$103.7M	-5.6%
FY 2023	$2.06B	21.8%	3.9%	-$66.2M	$247.8M	3.3%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BGS)

✓Walkthrough of BGS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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BGS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -59.21%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $2.30H $2.41L $2.26C $2.26VOL 2.62M

RES: $2.98SUP: $1.87SMA50: $2.84SMA200: $4.10

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BGS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BGS Butterfly Map → + Track BGS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

14.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -5.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BGS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BGS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BGS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BGS)

Consumer Staples Rank #108 of 146 ⚔️ MED vs BGS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (BGS vs. MED, OTLY, BYND, AFRI)

Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, B&G Foods Inc. (BGS) ranks #108 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #98 by equity capitalization ($183.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BGS leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while BGS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.3% ROIC and 21.8% gross margin. MED currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 50/100 (D) compared with BGS at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BGS ACTIVE B&G Foods Inc.	D	45/100	—	21.8%	3.3%	+9.71%	$183.7M	Benchmark Subject
MED MEDIFAST INC	D	50/100	—	71.3%	-10.2%	-0.16%	$137.1M	/med-vs-bgs →
OTLY Oatly Group AB	D	49/100	—	—	—	-6.54%	$255.3M	/otly-vs-bgs →
BYND Beyond Meat Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	-35.0%	+3.51%	$126.9M	/bynd-vs-bgs →
AFRI Forafric Global PLC	E	21/100	—	10.4%	-16.5%	-0.08%	$340.6M	/afri-vs-bgs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-03 • CIK 0001278027

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03), B&G Foods Inc. (BGS) reported GAAP revenue of $1.83B (-5.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.93B , and -11.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$43.3M, operating cash flow of $101.4M, and free cash flow of $70.7M (-31.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, BGS closed FY2025 with $2.83B in total assets against $1.95B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.24, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-03	$1.83B	-$43.3M	$101.4M	$70.7M	$2.83B	$1.95B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-28	$1.93B	-$251.3M	$130.9M	$103.7M	$2.99B	$2.01B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-30	$2.06B	-$66.2M	$247.8M	$247.8M	—	—

3. BGS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BGS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, B&G Foods Inc. (NYSE: BGS) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $2.26 (+9.71% 1D, market cap $183.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, BGS ranks #108 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BGS compare to MED and OTLY in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), BGS carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 21.8%, and ROIC of 3.3%. By comparison, MED (MEDIFAST INC) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.2%, cap $137.1M) and OTLY (Oatly Group AB) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $255.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BGS leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while BGS leads on capital efficiency (3.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BGS?

Per BGS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0001278027), B&G Foods Inc. generated $1.83B in revenue (-5.4% YoY), -$43.3M in net income, and $70.7M in free cash flow against $2.83B in total assets and $1.95B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BGS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BGS last traded at $2.26 (+9.71% on volume of 2,262,175 shares), positioning the stock -20.42% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.84) and -44.88% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.10). Across its 52-week range of $1.99 to $6.38, BGS sits at the 6.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.0% ($1.99 to $2.53).