Stock Ratings / Health Care / BCYC / forecast

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Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$3.82 -1.55% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.80

Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 24/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (24/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $267.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.80 (-0.47%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (24/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-15.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BCYC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (24/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BCYC SCORES 24/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+8/20 pts (33% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 10% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 48.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+6/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$3.89-11.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$3.46+2.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$3.55+7.6% Next Q

Current

Grade E$3.82-10.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (32) → E (24)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BCYC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BCYC currently carries a cautious 24/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.83) and Max Pain ($4.01) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.52.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BCYC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BCYC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 24%NO 76%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your BCYC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $3.82: 2617.8 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $2.53

$6,623

$-3,377 (-33.8%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $3.24

$8,482

$-1,518 (-15.2%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $8.52

$22,304

+$12,304 (+123.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$3	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$8	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$3	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BCYC)

✓Walkthrough of BCYC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

BCYC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -19.07%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $3.75H $3.82L $3.60C $3.82VOL 347.5K

RES: $4.32SUP: $3.17SMA50: $3.83SMA200: $4.56

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BCYC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BCYC Butterfly Map → + Track BCYC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +105.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BCYC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BCYC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BCYC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BCYC)

Health Care Rank #996 of 1016 ⚔️ QTTB vs BCYC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (BCYC vs. QTTB, AMRN, BIOA, ABEO)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) ranks #996 by composite RQD confidence (24/100, grade E) and #534 by equity capitalization ($267.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, QTTB leads on earnings valuation at 8.9x trailing P/E, while QTTB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. QTTB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with BCYC at 24/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BCYC ACTIVE Bicycle Therapeutics plc	E	24/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.55%	$267.4M	Benchmark Subject
QTTB Q32 Bio Inc.	C-	61/100	8.9x	—	85.0%	-2.10%	$264.1M	/qttb-vs-bcyc →
AMRN Amarin Corporation plc	D-	43/100	—	56.6%	-12.2%	-0.08%	$262.8M	/amrn-vs-bcyc →
BIOA BioAge Labs Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	-35.0%	0.00%	$272.6M	/bioa-vs-bcyc →
ABEO Abeona Therapeutics Inc.	D-	39/100	—	73.7%	-35.0%	+0.22%	$260.8M	/abeo-vs-bcyc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001761612

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) reported GAAP revenue of $72.6M (+105.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $35.3M , and +169.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$219.0M, operating cash flow of -$249.7M, and free cash flow of -$252.0M (-51.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, BCYC closed FY2025 with $717.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$72.6M	-$219.0M	-$249.7M	-$252.0M	$717.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$35.3M	-$169.0M	-$164.7M	-$166.0M	$956.9M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$27.0M	-$180.7M	-$60.6M	-$60.6M	—	—

3. BCYC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BCYC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Bicycle Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ: BCYC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 24/100 at a spot price of $3.82 (-1.55% 1D, market cap $267.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, BCYC ranks #996 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BCYC compare to QTTB and AMRN in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), BCYC carries a Roarable E (24/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, QTTB (Q32 Bio Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 8.9x, ROIC 85.0%, cap $264.1M) and AMRN (Amarin Corporation plc) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.2%, cap $262.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, QTTB leads on earnings multiple (8.9x) while QTTB leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BCYC?

Per BCYC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001761612), Bicycle Therapeutics plc generated $72.6M in revenue (+105.8% YoY), -$219.0M in net income, and -$252.0M in free cash flow against $717.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BCYC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BCYC last traded at $3.82 (-1.55% on volume of 598,183 shares), positioning the stock -0.26% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.83) and -16.23% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.56). Across its 52-week range of $3.33 to $8.11, BCYC sits at the 10.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($3.34 to $4.30).

BCYC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is BCYC's 12-month stock price target?

Bicycle Therapeutics plc (BCYC) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $3.24 (-15.2% from $3.82), with a bull-case target of $8.52 and a bear-case floor of $2.53.