Stock Ratings / Health Care / BCRX / earnings

VCEL (67) MESO (60) VIR (31) ALVO (58) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±8.2% Move

$8.52 +1.79% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.57

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 78/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 78/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 10% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.6% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $2.18B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.57 (+0.56%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 8.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 78/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 10% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.6% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BCRX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (78/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BCRX SCORES 78/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 8.7% FCF Margin ($347.4M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 7 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade A$8.55-8.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade A$7.79-1.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade A-$7.65+11.4% Next Q

Current

Grade B+$8.52+7.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: A (86) → B+ (78)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BCRX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 78/100 (B+) score, BCRX faces multiple-compression risk if 8.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($8.63) or 200D SMA ($8.75) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($9.29) toward Bear Floor ($6.99).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BCRX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BCRX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 78%NO 22%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±8.2% Swing Band

±$0.70 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

BCRX Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 78/100

Trailing EPS: $1.03 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (78/100)Model Risk Weight (22/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$263.9M	$347.4M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	-$88.9M	-$52.0M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	-$226.5M	-$95.1M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating BCRX & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on BCRX
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

BCRX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -6.99%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $8.55H $8.62L $8.38C $8.52VOL 3.53M

RES: $9.19SUP: $7.49SMA50: $8.63SMA200: $8.75

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BCRX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BCRX Butterfly Map → + Track BCRX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-4.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BCRX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BCRX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BCRX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BCRX)

Health Care Rank #22 of 1016 ⚔️ VCEL vs BCRX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (BCRX vs. VCEL, MESO, VIR, ALVO)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX) ranks #22 by composite RQD confidence (78/100, grade B+) and #249 by equity capitalization ($2.18B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCRX leads on earnings valuation at 8.3x trailing P/E, while BCRX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. BCRX currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 78/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BCRX ACTIVE BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc.	B+	78/100	8.3x	—	85.0%	+1.79%	$2.18B	Benchmark Subject
VCEL Vericel Corporation	C+	67/100	133.0x	74.4%	3.4%	+4.43%	$2.20B	/vcel-vs-bcrx →
MESO Mesoblast Limited	C-	60/100	—	—	—	+17.03%	$2.04B	/meso-vs-bcrx →
VIR Vir Biotechnology Inc.	E	31/100	—	96.0%	-35.0%	-1.51%	$2.01B	/vir-vs-bcrx →
ALVO Alvotech	D+	58/100	—	—	—	-1.01%	$1.91B	/alvo-vs-bcrx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000882796

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $263.9M, operating cash flow of $347.4M, and free cash flow of $347.4M (+767.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, BCRX closed FY2025 with $514.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$263.9M	$347.4M	$347.4M	$514.2M	$0
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$88.9M	-$52.0M	-$52.0M	$490.4M	$314.9M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$226.5M	-$95.1M	-$95.1M	—	—

3. BCRX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BCRX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: BCRX) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 78/100 at a spot price of $8.52 (+1.79% 1D, market cap $2.18B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, BCRX ranks #22 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BCRX compare to VCEL and MESO in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), BCRX carries a Roarable B+ (78/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, VCEL (Vericel Corporation) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 133.0x, ROIC 3.4%, cap $2.20B) and MESO (Mesoblast Limited) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.04B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCRX leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while BCRX leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BCRX?

Per BCRX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000882796), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $263.9M in net income, and $347.4M in free cash flow against $514.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BCRX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BCRX last traded at $8.52 (+1.79% on volume of 4,519,653 shares), positioning the stock -1.27% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.63) and -2.63% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.75). Across its 52-week range of $6.23 to $11.22, BCRX sits at the 45.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($7.82 to $9.22).

BCRX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is BCRX's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is BCRX stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±8.2% event move for BCRX, spanning a range between $7.82 and $9.22.

Direct Sub-Reports: BCRX RQD Cockpit BCRX 12M Forecast BCRX Earnings & Move BCRX Dividends & DRIP BCRX Insiders & 13F BCRX Whale Options BCRX Profit Sankey BCRX News & Why