Stock Ratings / Financials / AVBC / dividends

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Avidia Bancorp Inc. (AVBC) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$23.54 +1.20% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.55

Avidia Bancorp Inc. (AVBC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $470.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.55 (+0.03%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 0.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AVBC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY AVBC SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 98% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 74.1 (OVERBOUGHT (>70))

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.6% FCF Margin ($24.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 12 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$21.89+0.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$21.96+3.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$22.66+3.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$23.54-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the AVBC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, AVBC faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($22.11) or 200D SMA ($20.40) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($23.33) toward Bear Floor ($18.20).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AVBC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “AVBC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

1.8% Total Yield

0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

74/100 • REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

0% (100% Reinvested)

Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (6.8% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $19,307

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $348/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$10.7K

Yr 1

$11.4K

Yr 2

$12.2K

Yr 3

$13.0K

Yr 4

$13.9K

Yr 5

$14.8K

Yr 6

$15.8K

Yr 7

$16.9K

Yr 8

$18.1K

Yr 9

$19.3K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AVBC)

✓Walkthrough of AVBC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

AVBC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.34%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $23.54H $23.72L $23.43C $23.54VOL 122.0K

RES: $23.76SUP: $21.98SMA50: $22.11SMA200: $20.40

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AVBC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 AVBC Butterfly Map → + Track AVBC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AVBC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AVBC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AVBC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AVBC)

Financials Rank #681 of 1096 ⚔️ HBCP vs AVBC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (AVBC vs. HBCP, PBFS, NECB, TSBK)

Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Avidia Bancorp Inc. (AVBC) ranks #681 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #718 by equity capitalization ($470.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NECB leads on earnings valuation at 9.0x trailing P/E, while NECB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. NECB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with AVBC at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
AVBC ACTIVE Avidia Bancorp Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	-0.9%	+1.20%	$470.1M	Benchmark Subject
HBCP Home Bancorp Inc.	C+	66/100	10.5x	—	10.6%	-0.11%	$483.0M	/hbcp-vs-avbc →
PBFS Pioneer Bancorp Inc.	C-	59/100	22.2x	—	6.3%	+0.28%	$450.1M	/pbfs-vs-avbc →
NECB NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc.	B	72/100	9.0x	—	12.6%	+1.15%	$398.8M	/necb-vs-avbc →
TSBK Timberland Bancorp Inc.	B-	71/100	12.6x	—	10.9%	+0.38%	$367.5M	/tsbk-vs-avbc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002058758

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Avidia Bancorp Inc. (AVBC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$3.3M, operating cash flow of $28.4M, and free cash flow of $24.1M (+17.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, AVBC closed FY2025 with $2.84B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$3.3M	$28.4M	$24.1M	$2.84B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$11.5M	$23.2M	$20.4M	$2.66B	—

3. AVBC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AVBC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Avidia Bancorp Inc. (NYSE: AVBC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $23.54 (+1.20% 1D, market cap $470.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, AVBC ranks #681 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AVBC compare to HBCP and PBFS in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Banks), AVBC carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -0.9%. By comparison, HBCP (Home Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 10.5x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $483.0M) and PBFS (Pioneer Bancorp Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 22.2x, ROIC 6.3%, cap $450.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NECB leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while NECB leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AVBC?

Per AVBC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002058758), Avidia Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$3.3M in net income, and $24.1M in free cash flow against $2.84B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AVBC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AVBC last traded at $23.54 (+1.20% on volume of 111,491 shares), positioning the stock +6.47% above its 50-day simple moving average ($22.11) and +15.39% above its 200-day simple moving average ($20.40). Across its 52-week range of $14.84 to $23.72, AVBC sits at the 98.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 74.1 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.5% ($22.72 to $24.36).

AVBC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does AVBC pay a dividend and is it safe?

Avidia Bancorp Inc. (AVBC) offers a 0% cash dividend yield ($0.00 annualized) and 1.8% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS.

Direct Sub-Reports: AVBC RQD Cockpit AVBC 12M Forecast AVBC Earnings & Move AVBC Dividends & DRIP AVBC Insiders & 13F AVBC Whale Options AVBC Profit Sankey AVBC News & Why