Stock Ratings / Health Care / ASMB / financials

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Assembly Biosciences Inc. (ASMB) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$20.86 +1.41% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.87

Assembly Biosciences Inc. (ASMB) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 31/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $424.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.87 (+0.06%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ASMB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (31/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ASMB SCORES 31/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (35% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.6% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (32% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 8% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 35.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$23.53-14.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$20.09-1.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$19.84+5.1% Next Q

Current

Grade E$20.86-9.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (39) → E (31)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ASMB Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ASMB currently carries a cautious 31/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($26.14) and Max Pain ($21.90) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $41.70.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ASMB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ASMB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 31%NO 69%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How ASMB Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $72.3M

FY24

Rev $28.5M

FY25

Rev $72.3M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$72.3M	52%	-16.8%	-$6.1M	-$41.2M	-6.5%
FY 2024	$28.5M	52%	-80%	-$40.2M	-$51.1M	-45%
FY 2023	$72.3M	52%	-89.4%	-$61.2M	$22.7M	-6.5%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ASMB)

✓Walkthrough of ASMB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ASMB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.60%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $20.86H $21.00L $19.98C $20.86VOL 136.9K

RES: $39.46SUP: $18.87SMA50: $26.14SMA200: $27.20

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ASMB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ASMB Butterfly Map → + Track ASMB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +153.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ASMB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ASMB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ASMB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ASMB)

Health Care Rank #917 of 1016 ⚔️ ALT vs ASMB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ASMB vs. ALT, AVTX, RZLT, PRTA)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Assembly Biosciences Inc. (ASMB) ranks #917 by composite RQD confidence (31/100, grade E) and #472 by equity capitalization ($424.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ASMB leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while ASMB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -6.5% ROIC and — gross margin. ALT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 38/100 (D-) compared with ASMB at 31/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ASMB ACTIVE Assembly Biosciences Inc.	E	31/100	—	—	-6.5%	+1.41%	$424.7M	Benchmark Subject
ALT Altimmune Inc.	D-	38/100	—	—	-34.7%	+1.91%	$416.3M	/alt-vs-asmb →
AVTX Avalo Therapeutics Inc.	E	34/100	—	—	-35.0%	+4.49%	$399.0M	/avtx-vs-asmb →
RZLT Rezolute Inc. (NV)	E	33/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.37%	$398.5M	/rzlt-vs-asmb →
PRTA Prothena Corporation plc	E	24/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.42%	$455.9M	/prta-vs-asmb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001426800

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Assembly Biosciences Inc. (ASMB) reported GAAP revenue of $72.3M (+153.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $28.5M ) , GAAP net income of -$6.1M, operating cash flow of -$41.1M, and free cash flow of -$41.2M (+19.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ASMB closed FY2025 with $257.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.57, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$72.3M	-$6.1M	-$41.1M	-$41.2M	$257.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$28.5M	-$40.2M	-$51.1M	-$51.1M	$119.2M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$61.2M	$22.7M	$22.7M	—	—

3. ASMB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ASMB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Assembly Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: ASMB) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $20.86 (+1.41% 1D, market cap $424.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, ASMB ranks #917 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ASMB compare to ALT and AVTX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ASMB carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -6.5%. By comparison, ALT (Altimmune Inc.) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -34.7%, cap $416.3M) and AVTX (Avalo Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $399.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ASMB leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ASMB leads on capital efficiency (-6.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ASMB?

Per ASMB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001426800), Assembly Biosciences Inc. generated $72.3M in revenue (+153.5% YoY), -$6.1M in net income, and -$41.2M in free cash flow against $257.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ASMB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ASMB last traded at $20.86 (+1.41% on volume of 198,764 shares), positioning the stock -20.20% below its 50-day simple moving average ($26.14) and -23.31% below its 200-day simple moving average ($27.20). Across its 52-week range of $19.30 to $39.71, ASMB sits at the 7.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.6% ($18.65 to $23.07).

ASMB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Assembly Biosciences Inc. (ASMB)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), ASMB converted $72.3M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: ASMB RQD Cockpit ASMB 12M Forecast ASMB Earnings & Move ASMB Dividends & DRIP ASMB Insiders & 13F ASMB Whale Options ASMB Profit Sankey ASMB News & Why