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Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (ALDX) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$0.66 -3.58% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.65

Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (ALDX) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $39.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ALDX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ALDX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: ALDX) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $0.66 (-3.58% 1D, market cap $39.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BEARISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ALDX compare to ATHE and GRDX in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ALDX carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ATHE (Alterity Therapeutics Limited) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $40.7M) and GRDX (GridAI Technologies Corp.) posts a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -20.0%, cap $38.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALDX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while GRCE leads on capital efficiency (-18.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALDX?

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Per ALDX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001341235), Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$33.8M in net income, and -$33.3M in free cash flow against $72.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.65 (-0.83%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALDX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ALDX SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (33% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 35.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$0.91-26.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$0.67-4.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$0.64+3.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$0.66-7.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (48) → D- (40)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ALDX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ALDX currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.13) and Max Pain ($0.69) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.23.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALDX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ALDX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 40%NO 60%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

35.430 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE2% OF RANGE

L: $1$0.66H: $6

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 10 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on ALDX

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (30)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (35)

10/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 11/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ALDX

✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ALDX)

✓Walkthrough of ALDX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ALDX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -59.26%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-02O $0.68H $0.68L $0.66C $0.66VOL 418.1K

RES: $1.29SUP: $0.56SMA50: $1.13SMA200: $2.26

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALDX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ALDX Butterfly Map → + Track ALDX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALDX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALDX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALDX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALDX)

Health Care Rank #533 of 1016 ⚔️ ATHE vs ALDX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ALDX vs. ATHE, GRDX, GRCE, SCYX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (ALDX) ranks #533 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #776 by equity capitalization ($39.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ALDX leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while GRCE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -18.9% ROIC and — gross margin. ATHE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with ALDX at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ALDX ACTIVE Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc.	D-	40/100	—	—	-35.0%	-3.58%	$39.8M	Benchmark Subject
ATHE Alterity Therapeutics Limited	D	46/100	—	—	—	+2.93%	$40.7M	/athe-vs-aldx →
GRDX GridAI Technologies Corp.	D-	41/100	—	-30.0%	-20.0%	-5.38%	$38.9M	/grdx-vs-aldx →
GRCE Grace Therapeutics Inc.	E	32/100	—	—	-18.9%	-3.48%	$40.8M	/grce-vs-aldx →
SCYX SCYNEXIS Inc.	E	29/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.28%	$38.4M	/scyx-vs-aldx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001341235

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (ALDX) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$33.8M, operating cash flow of -$33.3M, and free cash flow of -$33.3M (+22.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALDX closed FY2025 with $72.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$33.8M	-$33.3M	-$33.3M	$72.1M	$0
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$55.9M	-$43.2M	-$43.2M	$104.6M	$15.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$37.5M	-$30.3M	-$30.3M	—	—

3. ALDX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALDX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ALDX compare to ATHE and GRDX in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALDX?

Where is ALDX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALDX last traded at $0.66 (-3.58% on volume of 418,108 shares), positioning the stock -41.59% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.13) and -70.80% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.26). Across its 52-week range of $0.55 to $5.93, ALDX sits at the 2.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.74).

ALDX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell ALDX stock right now?

Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (ALDX) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 40/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is ALDX's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ALDX's 12-month base price target is $0.61 (range $0.48 to $6.23), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: ALDX RQD Cockpit ALDX 12M Forecast ALDX Earnings & Move ALDX Dividends & DRIP ALDX Insiders & 13F ALDX Whale Options ALDX Profit Sankey ALDX News & Why