Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / ALCO / options

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Alico Inc. (ALCO) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$37.57 +0.51% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.53

Alico Inc. (ALCO) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $278.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.53 (-0.10%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 33.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALCO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ALCO SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 46% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 40.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (19% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 33.2% FCF Margin ($14.6M FCF) & 0% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 12 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$38.35-3.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$37.12+0.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$37.17+1.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$37.57-6.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → D- (43)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ALCO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ALCO currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($38.86) and Max Pain ($39.45) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $47.26.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALCO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ALCO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 43%NO 57%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±3.6%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ALCO)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ALCO.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ALCO)

✓Walkthrough of ALCO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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ALCO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -9.71%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $37.72H $37.98L $37.05C $37.57VOL 17.6K

RES: $44.35SUP: $36.52SMA50: $38.86SMA200: $40.22

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALCO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ALCO Butterfly Map → + Track ALCO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -5.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALCO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALCO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALCO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALCO)

Consumer Staples Rank #111 of 146 ⚔️ BNC vs ALCO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (ALCO vs. BNC, VFF, LND, LMNR)

Industry: Farming/Seeds/Milling (25 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alico Inc. (ALCO) ranks #111 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #94 by equity capitalization ($278.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VFF leads on earnings valuation at 9.8x trailing P/E, while VFF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.5% ROIC and 40.6% gross margin. VFF currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with ALCO at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ALCO ACTIVE Alico Inc.	D-	43/100	—	-30.0%	-35.0%	+0.51%	$278.7M	Benchmark Subject
BNC BNB Standard Corporation	E	29/100	—	—	-35.0%	-4.08%	$263.9M	/bnc-vs-alco →
VFF Village Farms International Inc.	C-	59/100	9.8x	40.6%	10.5%	+0.39%	$316.7M	/vff-vs-alco →
LND Brasilagro Brazilian Agric Real Estate Co Sponsored ADR (Brazil)	D+	55/100	—	—	—	+0.95%	$326.5M	/lnd-vs-alco →
LMNR Limoneira Co	E	34/100	—	-0.7%	-6.0%	+0.82%	$200.5M	/lmnr-vs-alco →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0000003545

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Alico Inc. (ALCO) reported GAAP revenue of $44.1M (-5.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $46.6M , and +10.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$147.3M, operating cash flow of $20.1M, and free cash flow of $14.6M (+130.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALCO closed FY2025 with $195.0M in total assets against $82.8M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$44.1M	-$147.3M	$20.1M	$14.6M	$195.0M	$82.8M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$46.6M	$7.0M	-$30.5M	-$48.4M	$397.6M	$82.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$39.8M	$1.8M	-$6.3M	-$6.3M	—	—

3. ALCO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALCO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Alico Inc. (NASDAQ: ALCO) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $37.57 (+0.51% 1D, market cap $278.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, ALCO ranks #111 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ALCO compare to BNC and VFF in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Farming/Seeds/Milling), ALCO carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -30.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, BNC (BNB Standard Corporation) holds a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $263.9M) and VFF (Village Farms International Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 9.8x, ROIC 10.5%, cap $316.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VFF leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while VFF leads on capital efficiency (10.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALCO?

Per ALCO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0000003545), Alico Inc. generated $44.1M in revenue (-5.5% YoY), -$147.3M in net income, and $14.6M in free cash flow against $195.0M in total assets and $82.8M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ALCO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALCO last traded at $37.57 (+0.51% on volume of 18,879 shares), positioning the stock -3.32% below its 50-day simple moving average ($38.86) and -6.59% below its 200-day simple moving average ($40.22). Across its 52-week range of $31.32 to $45.01, ALCO sits at the 45.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.6% ($36.22 to $38.92).

ALCO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is ALCO's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for ALCO.

Direct Sub-Reports: ALCO RQD Cockpit ALCO 12M Forecast ALCO Earnings & Move ALCO Dividends & DRIP ALCO Insiders & 13F ALCO Whale Options ALCO Profit Sankey ALCO News & Why