MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why AEON Stock surged +11.36% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$0.29 +11.36% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.30
AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (AEON) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $17.4M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.30 (+1.85%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AEON)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AEON SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (29% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (21% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$0.28-17.9% Next Q
40
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$0.23+4.3% Next Q
43
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$0.24+20.8% Next Q
45
CurrentGrade D$0.29-5.6% Hist 90D α
48
Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AEON Turnaround Squeeze
While AEON currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($0.26) and Max Pain ($0.30) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $1.52.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AEON• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AEON Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why AEON Stock surged +11.36% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (AEON) surged +11.36% to $0.29, trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($0.18 – $1.45). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($0.18 – $1.45) with RSI-14 at 53.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $0.29 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live AEON Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AEON)
- ✓Walkthrough of AEON's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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AEON // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -68.48%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $0.28H $0.29L $0.27C $0.29VOL 774.4K
RES: $0.46SUP: $0.23SMA50: $0.26SMA200: $0.68
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
AEON Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AEON today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AEON. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AEON today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AEON)
Health Care Rank #393 of 1016
⚔️ MRKR vs AEON Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (AEON vs. MRKR, NEUP, AKTX, RADX)
Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (AEON) ranks #393 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #844 by equity capitalization ($17.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AEON leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while NEUP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -11.8% ROIC and — gross margin. RADX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with AEON at 48/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEON
ACTIVE
AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) | D | 48/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +11.36% | $17.4M | Benchmark Subject |
| MRKR Marker Therapeutics Inc. | D | 48/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +1.00% | $16.8M | /mrkr-vs-aeon → |
| NEUP Neuphoria Therapeutics Inc. | E | 32/100 | — | — | -11.8% | -8.93% | $16.6M | /neup-vs-aeon → |
| AKTX Akari Therapeutics plc ADS | D- | 36/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -13.04% | $18.3M | /aktx-vs-aeon → |
| RADX Radiopharm Theranostics Limited | C- | 61/100 | — | — | — | +17.52% | $16.1M | /radx-vs-aeon → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001837607In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (AEON) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$39.2M, operating cash flow of -$17.3M, and free cash flow of -$17.3M (+14.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, AEON closed FY2025 with $5.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | -$39.2M | -$17.3M | -$17.3M | $5.6M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $42.0M | -$20.3M | -$20.3M | $3.1M | — |
3. AEON Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs AEON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: AEON) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $0.29 (+11.36% 1D, market cap $17.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, AEON ranks #393 in composite RQD confidence.
How does AEON compare to MRKR and NEUP in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), AEON carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MRKR (Marker Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $16.8M) and NEUP (Neuphoria Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.8%, cap $16.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AEON leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NEUP leads on capital efficiency (-11.8% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AEON?
Per AEON's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001837607), AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A) generated $0 in revenue, -$39.2M in net income, and -$17.3M in free cash flow against $5.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is AEON trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
AEON last traded at $0.29 (+11.36% on volume of 1,345,357 shares), positioning the stock +11.54% above its 50-day simple moving average ($0.26) and -57.35% below its 200-day simple moving average ($0.68). Across its 52-week range of $0.18 to $1.45, AEON sits at the 8.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.33).
AEON Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is AEON stock moving today?
Why AEON Stock surged +11.36% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.