Alcoa Corporation Common Stock (AA) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$39.89 -0.80% NYSE • Public Delayed / 60s Snapshot

Alcoa Corporation Common Stock (AA) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The underlying business is intact, so current owners don’t need to panic-sell—but mixed big-money flow or rich pricing means new buyers can afford to wait for either a pullback or a B-or-higher upgrade.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $10.53B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510066
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B+
Cash (12)Whales (10)SEC (16)Macro (16)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target
$89 Bull$41 Base$32 Bear
🔴 SUNDAY NIGHT PREP • 7:00 PM ET
WHALE OPTIONS TUG-OF-WAR:53% Call Buyers ($2.4M)
47% PutsMax Pain: $39.00
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your AA Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $39.89: 250.7 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $32.24
$8,082
$-1,918 (-19.2%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $41.33
$10,361
+$361 (+3.6%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $88.60
$22,211
+$12,211 (+122.1%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$4374%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$8369%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$3758%C
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Today's Top 3 RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Setups (Live AA Tape Review)

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RQD INSIDER CLUB UPGRADE$49/YEAR
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AA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -38.56%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $39.03H $39.77L $38.60C $39.19VOL 3.57M
RES: $40.14SUP: $37.42SMA50: $44.66SMA200: $56.42
$87.65$74.11$60.58$47.04$33.51RES $40.14SUP $37.42$39.192026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-3.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

AA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is AA's 12-month stock price target?

Alcoa Corporation Common Stock (AA) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $41.33 (+3.6% from $39.89), with a bull-case target of $88.6 and a bear-case floor of $32.24.

Is AA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates AA C+ (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 66/100.