Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$2.49 -3.49% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.47

Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $376.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is VGZ stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Vista Gold Corp (NYSE: VGZ) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $2.49 (-3.49% 1D, market cap $376.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, VGZ ranks #189 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does VGZ compare to URG and CMCL in the Materials sector?
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Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), VGZ carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, URG (Ur Energy Inc (Canada)) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $356.6M) and CMCL (Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $413.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VGZ leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TMQ leads on capital efficiency (-34.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VGZ?
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Per VGZ's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000783324), Vista Gold Corp generated $0 in revenue, -$7.5M in net income, and -$7.2M in free cash flow against $16.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.47 (-0.82%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
025507510042
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (11)SEC (10)Macro (10)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.2% Base Target
$3 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE VGZ RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VGZ)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY VGZ SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
50
Grade C-$2.61+4.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
47
Grade D$2.72-4.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
45
Grade D$2.59-3.9% Next Q
Current
42
Grade D-$2.49-7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (50) → D- (42)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VGZ Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While VGZ currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.51) and Max Pain ($2.61) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.29.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VGZ• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “VGZ Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
4930 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
2 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE62% OF RANGE
L: $1$2.49H: $3
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 14 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on VGZ

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (40)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -1.91% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (40)

14/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like VGZ
  • ✓Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VGZ)

  • ✓Walkthrough of VGZ's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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VGZ // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +18.57%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-02O $2.70H $2.70L $2.49C $2.49VOL 2.23M
RES: $2.99SUP: $2.67SMA50: $2.51SMA200: $2.27
$2.99$2.58$2.18$1.77$1.36RES $2.99SUP $2.67$2.492026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VGZ Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VGZ today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VGZ. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VGZ today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VGZ)

Materials Rank #189 of 270 ⚔️ URG vs VGZ Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (VGZ vs. URG, CMCL, TMQ, VOXR)

Industry: Precious Metals (74 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) ranks #189 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #188 by equity capitalization ($376.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VGZ leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TMQ leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -34.0% ROIC and — gross margin. VOXR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 48/100 (D) compared with VGZ at 42/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
VGZ ACTIVE
Vista Gold Corp
D- 42/100 — — -35.0% -3.49% $376.6M Benchmark Subject
URG
Ur Energy Inc (Canada)
E 26/100 — 0.3% -35.0% -4.97% $356.6M /urg-vs-vgz →
CMCL
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc
D 46/100 — — — -5.37% $413.8M /cmcl-vs-vgz →
TMQ
Trilogy Metals Inc.
E 31/100 — — -34.0% -5.19% $418.9M /tmq-vs-vgz →
VOXR
Vox Royalty Corp.
D 48/100 — — — -5.57% $337.1M /voxr-vs-vgz →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000783324

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$7.5M, operating cash flow of -$6.6M, and free cash flow of -$7.2M (-18.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, VGZ closed FY2025 with $16.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 -$7.5M -$6.6M -$7.2M $16.3M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 $11.2M -$5.7M -$6.1M $19.0M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 -$6.6M -$5.9M -$5.9M — —

3. VGZ Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VGZ stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Vista Gold Corp (NYSE: VGZ) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $2.49 (-3.49% 1D, market cap $376.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, VGZ ranks #189 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VGZ compare to URG and CMCL in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), VGZ carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, URG (Ur Energy Inc (Canada)) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $356.6M) and CMCL (Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $413.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VGZ leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TMQ leads on capital efficiency (-34.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VGZ?

Per VGZ's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000783324), Vista Gold Corp generated $0 in revenue, -$7.5M in net income, and -$7.2M in free cash flow against $16.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VGZ trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VGZ last traded at $2.49 (-3.49% on volume of 3,404,107 shares), positioning the stock -0.80% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.51) and +9.69% above its 200-day simple moving average ($2.27). Across its 52-week range of $1.43 to $3.13, VGZ sits at the 62.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.5% ($2.25 to $2.73).

VGZ Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell VGZ stock right now?

Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 42/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is VGZ's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

VGZ's 12-month base price target is $2.31 (range $1.8 to $3.29), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 42/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

VGZ — Vista Gold Corp: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:37:27Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, VGZ scores 42 out of 100 with a letter grade of D-, labeled "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The fundamental cash engine pillar scores 8 out of 20, reflecting ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of -1.91%; for a prospective investor, this means the business is not currently generating returns on invested capital or positive free cash flow, so value must rest on factors outside present earnings power. The whale/13F flow pillar scores 11 out of 20, described in the rating as institutional accumulation and options positioning; this is the strongest pillar and represents the main potential upside driver, though the source does not itemize the underlying 13F holdings. The insider conviction pillar scores 3 out of 20, based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, which signals weak insider-level conviction and is a meaningful negative. The macro regime fit pillar scores 10 out of 20, with beta at 1.0 and the rating noting sector sensitivity; a market-matching beta means the stock is not structurally insulated from broad moves. The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 10 out of 20, with Altman Z at 2.5, Piotroski F at 2 of 9, and Debt/Equity at 0.5; the weak Piotroski reading and the Altman figure together suggest financial fragility that a prospective investor should weigh against the stock's valuation tradeoffs. Taken together, the rating implies that upside depends on a shift in cash generation and flow sentiment that the current data does not yet show.

Business

Vista Gold Corp is listed on the NYSE and classified in the Materials sector and Precious Metals industry, per the profile section. The source data does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model. The financials section reports revenue of $0.0M for each of FY 2023, FY 2024, and FY 2025, so the source does not show a revenue-generating operation during these periods.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$-9.3M$-7.5MN/A$-7.2M$13.6MN/A
FY 2024$0.0M$10.5M$11.2MN/A$-6.1M$16.9MN/A
FY 2023$0.0M$-6.8M$-6.6MN/A$-5.9MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, operating income and net income were negative in FY 2025 and FY 2023 but positive in FY 2024, while free cash flow was negative in all three reported periods. Gross, operating, and net margins are each listed as 0% in the market data, and ROIC is -35%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 2 of 9, with Debt/Equity at 0.5. Cash decreased from $16.9M in FY 2024 to $13.6M in FY 2025 per the SEC financials.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The recent news section contains six items, all tagged to VGZ, sourced from Moomoo, Yahoo Finance UK, Yahoo Finance Canada, and Stock Traders Daily, and all carrying a YELLOW light and MARKET WIRE impact label. The headlines are largely quote, chart, and report pages (options chain, seasonal returns charts, and a trading report) and their summaries describe generic coverage of market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts; none names a specific fundamental event. Because the items are generic, they do not identify a discrete catalyst. The butterfly supply-chain graph reports supply chain as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and bottlenecks are therefore not available in source data. The only sector context is the classification of Materials and Precious Metals per the profile section.

Open Questions

  • What specific assets, projects, or revenue sources does Vista Gold hold, given reported revenue of $0.0M across all periods?
  • What explains the positive FY 2024 net income of $11.2M against negative operating income in FY 2025 and FY 2023, and was it recurring or one-time?
  • What are the debt figures, since the financials list debt as N/A for every period while the rating cites Debt/Equity of 0.5?
  • What 13F institutional holders and insider transactions make up the whale and insider pillar scores?
  • What is the company's cash runway given free cash flow of -$7.2M in FY 2025 and cash of $13.6M?

VGZ Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to VGZ Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

VGZ Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.49?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON VGZ 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on VGZ:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.27 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is VGZ (D- • RQD 42/100) a Buy at $2.58?

Welcome to the VGZ (Vista Gold Corp) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 42/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Precious Metals. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.94 (-24.8%)
Spot @ $2.58

Pump the brakes on VGZ — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on VGZ, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Vista Gold Corp expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.30 (+27.9%)
Spot @ $2.58

VGZ cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on VGZ, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Precious Metals and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $2.58 (52-wk range $1.43 - $3.13), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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