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Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$2.58 -4.44% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.55

Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $376.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.55 (-0.99%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VGZ)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY VGZ SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$2.65+2.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$2.72-2.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$2.64-2.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$2.58-8.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (43) → D- (35)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VGZ Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While VGZ currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.50) and Max Pain ($2.71) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.29.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VGZ• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “VGZ Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

4330 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

2 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE68% OF RANGE

L: $1$2.58H: $3

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 9 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on VGZ

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (40)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -1.91% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (28)

9/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like VGZ

✓Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VGZ)

✓Walkthrough of VGZ's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

VGZ // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.44%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $2.50H $2.58L $2.43C $2.58VOL 3.40M

RES: $2.99SUP: $2.04SMA50: $2.50SMA200: $2.27

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VGZ Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VGZ Butterfly Map → + Track VGZ →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VGZ today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VGZ. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VGZ today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VGZ)

Materials Rank #239 of 270 ⚔️ URG vs VGZ Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (VGZ vs. URG, CMCL, TMQ, VOXR)

Industry: Precious Metals (74 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) ranks #239 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #188 by equity capitalization ($376.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VGZ leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TMQ leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -34.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CMCL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 50/100 (D) compared with VGZ at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
VGZ ACTIVE Vista Gold Corp	D-	35/100	—	—	-35.0%	-4.44%	$376.6M	Benchmark Subject
URG Ur Energy Inc (Canada)	D-	42/100	—	0.3%	-35.0%	-2.38%	$356.6M	/urg-vs-vgz →
CMCL Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc	D	50/100	—	—	—	-1.70%	$413.8M	/cmcl-vs-vgz →
TMQ Trilogy Metals Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	-34.0%	-0.86%	$418.9M	/tmq-vs-vgz →
VOXR Vox Royalty Corp.	D	50/100	—	—	—	-2.61%	$337.1M	/voxr-vs-vgz →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000783324

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$7.5M, operating cash flow of -$6.6M, and free cash flow of -$7.2M (-18.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, VGZ closed FY2025 with $16.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$7.5M	-$6.6M	-$7.2M	$16.3M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$11.2M	-$5.7M	-$6.1M	$19.0M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$6.6M	-$5.9M	-$5.9M	—	—

3. VGZ Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VGZ stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Vista Gold Corp (NYSE: VGZ) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $2.58 (-4.44% 1D, market cap $376.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, VGZ ranks #239 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VGZ compare to URG and CMCL in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), VGZ carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, URG (Ur Energy Inc (Canada)) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $356.6M) and CMCL (Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $413.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VGZ leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TMQ leads on capital efficiency (-34.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VGZ?

Per VGZ's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000783324), Vista Gold Corp generated $0 in revenue, -$7.5M in net income, and -$7.2M in free cash flow against $16.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VGZ trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VGZ last traded at $2.58 (-4.44% on volume of 2,234,219 shares), positioning the stock +3.20% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2.50) and +13.66% above its 200-day simple moving average ($2.27). Across its 52-week range of $1.43 to $3.13, VGZ sits at the 67.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.6% ($2.33 to $2.83).

VGZ Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell VGZ stock right now?

Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 35/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is VGZ's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

VGZ's 12-month base price target is $2.31 (range $1.8 to $3.29), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: VGZ RQD Cockpit VGZ 12M Forecast VGZ Earnings & Move VGZ Dividends & DRIP VGZ Insiders & 13F VGZ Whale Options VGZ Profit Sankey VGZ News & Why