Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / VAI

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Valor Energy Incorporated (VAI) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$2.16 +2.86% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.17

Valor Energy Incorporated (VAI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $31.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on VAI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is VAI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Valor Energy Incorporated (NASDAQ: VAI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $2.16 (+2.86% 1D, market cap $31.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, VAI ranks #814 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does VAI compare to MRT and HTZ in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Rental/Leasing Companies), VAI carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 13.6%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MRT (Marti Technologies Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $179.8M) and HTZ (Hertz Global Holdings Inc) posts a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $691.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, R leads on earnings multiple (21.5x) while R leads on capital efficiency (5.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VAI?

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Per VAI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0001711012), Valor Energy Incorporated generated $1.5M in revenue (-53.7% YoY), -$5.3M in net income, and -$1.6M in free cash flow against $5.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.17 (+0.32%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VAI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY VAI SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (29% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+9/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 64% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 45.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$2.81-5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$2.67-15.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$2.25-4% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$2.16-8.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (43) → D- (35)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VAI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While VAI currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.18) and Max Pain ($2.27) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.06.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VAI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “VAI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

45.830 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

1 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE64% OF RANGE

L: $1$2.16H: $3

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 8 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 13 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 14 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on VAI

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (40)

-35.0% ROIC with 13.6% gross margin and -5.09% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (25)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 1/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (37)

13/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 9/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like VAI

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VAI)

✓Walkthrough of VAI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

VAI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +84.62%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-02O $2.10H $2.16L $2.10C $2.16VOL 19.8K

RES: $3.16SUP: $2.09SMA50: $2.18SMA200: $1.54

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VAI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VAI Butterfly Map → + Track VAI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -53.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VAI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VAI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VAI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VAI)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #814 of 1011 ⚔️ MRT vs VAI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (VAI vs. MRT, HTZ, CAR, R)

Industry: Rental/Leasing Companies (6 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Valor Energy Incorporated (VAI) ranks #814 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #852 by equity capitalization ($31.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, R leads on earnings valuation at 21.5x trailing P/E, while R leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 5.7% ROIC and — gross margin. R currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with VAI at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
VAI ACTIVE Valor Energy Incorporated	D-	35/100	—	13.6%	-35.0%	+2.86%	$31.4M	Benchmark Subject
MRT Marti Technologies Inc. (Class A)	D-	42/100	—	61.1%	-35.0%	+1.46%	$179.8M	/mrt-vs-vai →
HTZ Hertz Global Holdings Inc	D-	42/100	—	—	—	+2.11%	$691.5M	/htz-vs-vai →
CAR Avis Budget Group Inc.	D-	42/100	—	—	—	+6.31%	$3.82B	/car-vs-vai →
R Ryder System Inc.	C	62/100	21.5x	—	5.7%	+1.84%	$10.73B	/r-vs-vai →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-31 • CIK 0001711012

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Valor Energy Incorporated (VAI) reported GAAP revenue of $1.5M (-53.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.3M , and -63.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$5.3M, operating cash flow of -$1.6M, and free cash flow of -$1.6M (-420.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, VAI closed FY2025 with $5.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-03-31	$1.5M	-$5.3M	-$1.6M	-$1.6M	$5.7M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2025-03-31	$3.3M	-$3.7M	$500.3K	$499.9K	$7.9M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2024-03-31	$4.3M	-$3.7M	$7.2K	$7.2K	—	—

3. VAI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VAI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does VAI compare to MRT and HTZ in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VAI?

Where is VAI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VAI last traded at $2.16 (+2.86% on volume of 19,765 shares), positioning the stock -0.92% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.18) and +40.26% above its 200-day simple moving average ($1.54). Across its 52-week range of $0.83 to $2.91, VAI sits at the 63.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.89 to $2.43).

VAI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell VAI stock right now?

Valor Energy Incorporated (VAI) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 35/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is VAI's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

VAI's 12-month base price target is $1.94 (range $1.51 to $3.06), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: VAI RQD Cockpit VAI 12M Forecast VAI Earnings & Move VAI Dividends & DRIP VAI Insiders & 13F VAI Whale Options VAI Profit Sankey VAI News & Why