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Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$23.17 +0.22% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.14

Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.02B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on PFS Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PFS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Provident Financial Services Inc (NYSE: PFS) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $23.17 (+0.22% 1D, market cap $3.02B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, PFS ranks #185 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PFS compare to BKU and CLBK in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), PFS carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.3%. By comparison, BKU (BankUnited Inc.) holds a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 11.5x, ROIC 8.8%, cap $3.09B) and CLBK (Columbia Financial Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.89B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PFS leads on earnings multiple (10.4x) while PFS leads on capital efficiency (10.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PFS?

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Per PFS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001178970), Provident Financial Services Inc generated $73.1M in revenue (+7.1% YoY), $291.0M in net income, and $430.7M in free cash flow against $24.98B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.14 (-0.15%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 589.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PFS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PFS SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (21% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 70% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 58.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 8 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$22.14-0.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$22.11+5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$23.22-0.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$23.17+1.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PFS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, PFS faces multiple-compression risk if 10.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($22.86) or 200D SMA ($22.65) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($24.21) toward Bear Floor ($18.88).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PFS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PFS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 68%NO 32%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

58.630 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

6 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE70% OF RANGE

L: $18$23.17H: $25

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on PFS

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (60)

10.3% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 14.25% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (72)

29/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 14/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like PFS

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (PFS Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

PFS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.13%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $23.12H $23.17L $23.12C $23.17VOL 770.9K

RES: $23.43SUP: $21.22SMA50: $22.86SMA200: $22.65

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PFS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PFS Butterfly Map → + Track PFS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-0.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PFS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PFS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PFS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PFS)

Financials Rank #185 of 1096 ⚔️ BKU vs PFS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (PFS vs. BKU, CLBK, TFSL, EBC)

Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) ranks #185 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #366 by equity capitalization ($3.02B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PFS leads on earnings valuation at 10.4x trailing P/E, while PFS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.3% ROIC and — gross margin. EBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with PFS at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PFS ACTIVE Provident Financial Services Inc	C+	68/100	10.4x	—	10.3%	+0.22%	$3.02B	Benchmark Subject
BKU BankUnited Inc.	D+	54/100	11.5x	—	8.8%	+1.38%	$3.09B	/bku-vs-pfs →
CLBK Columbia Financial Inc.	D+	52/100	—	—	—	+0.56%	$2.89B	/clbk-vs-pfs →
TFSL TFS Financial Corporation	D+	52/100	51.7x	—	4.8%	+0.54%	$4.70B	/tfsl-vs-pfs →
EBC Eastern Bankshares Inc.	C+	69/100	58.6x	—	0.7%	+0.53%	$5.17B	/ebc-vs-pfs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001178970

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) reported GAAP revenue of $73.1M (+7.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $68.3M , and +27.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $291.0M, operating cash flow of $442.3M, and free cash flow of $430.7M (+1.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, PFS closed FY2025 with $24.98B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$73.1M	$291.0M	$442.3M	$430.7M	$24.98B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$68.3M	$116.0M	$426.4M	$425.1M	$24.05B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$57.5M	$128.0M	$173.4M	$173.4M	—	—

3. PFS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PFS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does PFS compare to BKU and CLBK in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PFS?

Where is PFS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PFS last traded at $23.17 (+0.22% on volume of 770,915 shares), positioning the stock +1.36% above its 50-day simple moving average ($22.86) and +2.30% above its 200-day simple moving average ($22.65). Across its 52-week range of $17.71 to $25.49, PFS sits at the 70.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.6% ($22.34 to $24.00).

PFS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell PFS stock right now?

Provident Financial Services Inc (PFS) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold — HOLD) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (10% return on capital), mixed timing at 10x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is PFS's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

PFS's 12-month base price target is $24.21 (range $18.88 to $28.57), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: PFS RQD Cockpit PFS 12M Forecast PFS Earnings & Move PFS Dividends & DRIP PFS Insiders & 13F PFS Whale Options PFS Profit Sankey PFS News & Why