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MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$1.19 +4.39% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.20

MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $7.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.20 (+0.60%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MTVA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MTVA SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (32% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 32.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (28% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$1.41-10.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$1.26+9.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$1.38-13.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D$1.19-5.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → D (47)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MTVA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MTVA currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.52) and Max Pain ($1.25) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.59.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MTVA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MTVA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 47%NO 53%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

32.230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

2 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE2% OF RANGE

L: $1$1.19H: $15

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 4 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on MTVA

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (20)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (55)

18/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 15/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MTVA

✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MTVA)

✓Walkthrough of MTVA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MTVA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -17.36%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $1.20H $1.29L $1.12C $1.19VOL 72.5K

RES: $1.21SUP: $1.10SMA50: $1.52SMA200: $1.68

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MTVA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MTVA Butterfly Map → + Track MTVA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MTVA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MTVA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MTVA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MTVA)

Health Care Rank #428 of 1016 ⚔️ TCRT vs MTVA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (MTVA vs. TCRT, KPRX, CURX, LEXX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) ranks #428 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #913 by equity capitalization ($7.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTVA leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while MTVA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. MTVA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MTVA ACTIVE MetaVia Inc.	D	47/100	—	—	-35.0%	+4.39%	$7.8M	Benchmark Subject
TCRT Alaunos Therapeutics Inc.	E	31/100	—	—	-35.0%	-11.27%	$7.8M	/tcrt-vs-mtva →
KPRX Kiora Pharmaceuticals Inc.	E	32/100	—	—	-35.0%	-25.42%	$7.8M	/kprx-vs-mtva →
CURX Curanex Pharmaceuticals Inc	D-	37/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.20%	$7.7M	/curx-vs-mtva →
LEXX Lexaria Bioscience Corp.	D	47/100	—	96.0%	-35.0%	+14.24%	$7.9M	/lexx-vs-mtva →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001638287

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$13.0M, operating cash flow of -$15.7M, and free cash flow of -$15.7M (+36.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, MTVA closed FY2025 with $11.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$13.0M	-$15.7M	-$15.7M	$11.1M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$27.6M	-$24.7M	-$24.7M	$16.3M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$12.5M	-$10.8M	-$10.8M	—	—

3. MTVA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MTVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, MetaVia Inc. (NASDAQ: MTVA) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $1.19 (+4.39% 1D, market cap $7.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, MTVA ranks #428 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MTVA compare to TCRT and KPRX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MTVA carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, TCRT (Alaunos Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $7.8M) and KPRX (Kiora Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $7.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTVA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MTVA leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTVA?

Per MTVA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001638287), MetaVia Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$13.0M in net income, and -$15.7M in free cash flow against $11.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MTVA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MTVA last traded at $1.19 (+4.39% on volume of 66,594 shares), positioning the stock -21.71% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.52) and -29.17% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.68). Across its 52-week range of $0.97 to $14.85, MTVA sits at the 1.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 32.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.04 to $1.34).

MTVA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell MTVA stock right now?

MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 47/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is MTVA's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

MTVA's 12-month base price target is $1.13 (range $0.88 to $15.59), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: MTVA RQD Cockpit MTVA 12M Forecast MTVA Earnings & Move MTVA Dividends & DRIP MTVA Insiders & 13F MTVA Whale Options MTVA Profit Sankey MTVA News & Why