Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / JAKK

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JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$32.29 -0.62% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $32.19

JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $372.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on JAKK Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is JAKK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, JAKKS Pacific Inc. (NASDAQ: JAKK) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $32.29 (-0.62% 1D, market cap $372.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, JAKK ranks #750 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does JAKK compare to FNKO and BBW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Recreational Games/Products/Toys), JAKK carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 96.0%, and ROIC of 5.7%. By comparison, FNKO (Funko Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.4%, cap $374.6M) and BBW (Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 6.5x, ROIC 33.7%, cap $338.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BBW leads on earnings multiple (6.5x) while BBW leads on capital efficiency (33.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JAKK?

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Per JAKK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001009829), JAKKS Pacific Inc. generated $113.3M in revenue (-83.6% YoY), $9.87B in net income, and -$1.1M in free cash flow against $442.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $32.19 (-0.30%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JAKK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY JAKK SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (38% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.9% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+7/20 pts (18% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.72 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 12.6% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$27.74+2.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$28.37+12.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$32.01+0.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$32.29-7.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (31) → D- (39)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a JAKK Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While JAKK currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($26.81) and Max Pain ($33.90) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $34.88.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JAKK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “JAKK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 39%NO 61%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERBOUGHT (>70)

73.130 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

1.72>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE95% OF RANGE

L: $15$32.29H: $33

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 4 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 14 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on JAKK

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (20)

5.7% ROIC with 96.0% gross margin and -0.29% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (35)

Altman-Z 1.72 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (47)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 7/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like JAKK

✓Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring JAKK)

✓Walkthrough of JAKK's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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JAKK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +40.21%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $32.49H $32.49L $32.29C $32.29VOL 251.1K

RES: $33.40SUP: $25.68SMA50: $26.81SMA200: $23.13

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

JAKK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 JAKK Butterfly Map → + Track JAKK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

11.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -65.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JAKK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JAKK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JAKK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JAKK)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #750 of 1011 ⚔️ FNKO vs JAKK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (JAKK vs. FNKO, BBW, JOUT, ESCA)

Industry: Recreational Games/Products/Toys (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) ranks #750 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #628 by equity capitalization ($372.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BBW leads on earnings valuation at 6.5x trailing P/E, while BBW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.7% ROIC and 55.8% gross margin. ESCA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with JAKK at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
JAKK ACTIVE JAKKS Pacific Inc.	D-	39/100	—	96.0%	5.7%	-0.62%	$372.0M	Benchmark Subject
FNKO Funko Inc. (Class A)	D-	38/100	—	—	-10.4%	+1.52%	$374.6M	/fnko-vs-jakk →
BBW Build-A-Bear Workshop Inc.	C+	68/100	6.5x	55.8%	33.7%	+9.18%	$338.5M	/bbw-vs-jakk →
JOUT Johnson Outdoors Inc. (Class A)	D	50/100	—	35.1%	-4.5%	+2.30%	$484.4M	/jout-vs-jakk →
ESCA Escalade Incorporated	B	75/100	20.2x	26.9%	8.0%	+8.63%	$277.2M	/esca-vs-jakk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001009829

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) reported GAAP revenue of $113.3M (-83.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $691.0M , and -84.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $9.87B, operating cash flow of $8.5M, and free cash flow of -$1.1M (-103.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, JAKK closed FY2025 with $442.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.72, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$113.3M	$9.87B	$8.5M	-$1.1M	$442.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$691.0M	$34.20B	$38.9M	$27.7M	$444.9M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$711.6M	$38.11B	$66.4M	$66.4M	—	—

3. JAKK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is JAKK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does JAKK compare to FNKO and BBW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JAKK?

Where is JAKK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

JAKK last traded at $32.29 (-0.62% on volume of 251,107 shares), positioning the stock +20.44% above its 50-day simple moving average ($26.81) and +39.60% above its 200-day simple moving average ($23.13). Across its 52-week range of $14.87 to $33.22, JAKK sits at the 94.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 73.1 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.9% ($30.06 to $34.52).

JAKK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell JAKK stock right now?

JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 39/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is JAKK's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

JAKK's 12-month base price target is $29.53 (range $23.03 to $34.88), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: JAKK RQD Cockpit JAKK 12M Forecast JAKK Earnings & Move JAKK Dividends & DRIP JAKK Insiders & 13F JAKK Whale Options JAKK Profit Sankey JAKK News & Why