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4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$12.78 -1.16% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.73

4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $706.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.73 (-0.40%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FDMT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FDMT SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (35% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.17 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$13.33-8.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$12.14-11% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$10.80+18.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$12.78-7.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (48) → D- (40)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FDMT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While FDMT currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($13.72) and Max Pain ($13.42) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $17.78.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FDMT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FDMT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 40%NO 60%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

44.130 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

5.17>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE58% OF RANGE

L: $7$12.78H: $17

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 9 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on FDMT

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (45)

-28.3% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -15.53% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (70)

Altman-Z 5.17 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (28)

9/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like FDMT

✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FDMT)

✓Walkthrough of FDMT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

FDMT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +44.08%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $12.49H $12.88L $11.73C $12.78VOL 683.5K

RES: $17.31SUP: $10.71SMA50: $13.72SMA200: $10.87

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FDMT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FDMT Butterfly Map → + Track FDMT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FDMT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FDMT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FDMT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FDMT)

Health Care Rank #633 of 1016 ⚔️ ATTO vs FDMT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (FDMT vs. ATTO, SLDB, IAM, CADL)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) ranks #633 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #399 by equity capitalization ($706.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FDMT leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while FDMT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -28.3% ROIC and — gross margin. IAM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 50/100 (D) compared with FDMT at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FDMT ACTIVE 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc.	D-	40/100	—	—	-28.3%	-1.16%	$706.0M	Benchmark Subject
ATTO Attovia Therapeutics Inc.	D	47/100	—	—	—	-3.35%	$697.1M	/atto-vs-fdmt →
SLDB Solid Biosciences Inc.	E	31/100	—	—	-35.0%	-1.39%	$685.2M	/sldb-vs-fdmt →
IAM Iambic Therapeutics Inc.	D	50/100	—	—	—	-3.38%	$676.9M	/iam-vs-fdmt →
CADL Candel Therapeutics Inc.	D-	38/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.23%	$661.9M	/cadl-vs-fdmt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001650648

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) reported GAAP revenue of $85.2M (+230194.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $37.0K , and +311.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$140.1M, operating cash flow of -$109.1M, and free cash flow of -$109.6M (+20.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, FDMT closed FY2025 with $566.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.17, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$85.2M	-$140.1M	-$109.1M	-$109.6M	$566.7M	$0
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$37.0K	-$160.9M	-$134.6M	-$138.4M	$560.4M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$20.7M	-$100.8M	-$75.8M	-$75.8M	—	—

3. FDMT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FDMT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: FDMT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $12.78 (-1.16% 1D, market cap $706.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, FDMT ranks #633 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FDMT compare to ATTO and SLDB in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), FDMT carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -28.3%. By comparison, ATTO (Attovia Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $697.1M) and SLDB (Solid Biosciences Inc.) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $685.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FDMT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while FDMT leads on capital efficiency (-28.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FDMT?

Per FDMT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001650648), 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. generated $85.2M in revenue (+230194.6% YoY), -$140.1M in net income, and -$109.6M in free cash flow against $566.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FDMT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FDMT last traded at $12.78 (-1.16% on volume of 848,942 shares), positioning the stock -6.85% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.72) and +17.57% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.87). Across its 52-week range of $6.96 to $16.93, FDMT sits at the 58.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($11.18 to $14.38).

FDMT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell FDMT stock right now?

4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 40/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-28% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is FDMT's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

FDMT's 12-month base price target is $11.74 (range $9.16 to $17.78), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: FDMT RQD Cockpit FDMT 12M Forecast FDMT Earnings & Move FDMT Dividends & DRIP FDMT Insiders & 13F FDMT Whale Options FDMT Profit Sankey FDMT News & Why