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BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$8.52 +1.79% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.57

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 78/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 78/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 10% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.6% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $2.18B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.57 (+0.56%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 8.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 78/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 10% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.6% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BCRX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (78/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BCRX SCORES 78/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 8.7% FCF Margin ($347.4M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 7 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade A$8.55-8.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade A$7.79-1.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade A-$7.65+11.4% Next Q

Current

Grade B+$8.52+7.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: A (86) → B+ (78)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BCRX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 78/100 (B+) score, BCRX faces multiple-compression risk if 8.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($8.63) or 200D SMA ($8.75) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($9.29) toward Bear Floor ($6.99).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BCRX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BCRX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 78%NO 22%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

54.830 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

6 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE46% OF RANGE

L: $6$8.52H: $11

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: ARQD 18 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: B+RQD 31 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on BCRX

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (90)

85.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 15.96% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (78)

31/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 16/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like BCRX

✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (BCRX Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

BCRX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -6.99%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $8.55H $8.62L $8.38C $8.52VOL 3.53M

RES: $9.19SUP: $7.49SMA50: $8.63SMA200: $8.75

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BCRX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BCRX Butterfly Map → + Track BCRX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-4.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BCRX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BCRX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BCRX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BCRX)

Health Care Rank #22 of 1016 ⚔️ VCEL vs BCRX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (BCRX vs. VCEL, MESO, VIR, ALVO)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX) ranks #22 by composite RQD confidence (78/100, grade B+) and #249 by equity capitalization ($2.18B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCRX leads on earnings valuation at 8.3x trailing P/E, while BCRX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. BCRX currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 78/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BCRX ACTIVE BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc.	B+	78/100	8.3x	—	85.0%	+1.79%	$2.18B	Benchmark Subject
VCEL Vericel Corporation	C+	67/100	133.0x	74.4%	3.4%	+4.43%	$2.20B	/vcel-vs-bcrx →
MESO Mesoblast Limited	C-	60/100	—	—	—	+17.03%	$2.04B	/meso-vs-bcrx →
VIR Vir Biotechnology Inc.	E	31/100	—	96.0%	-35.0%	-1.51%	$2.01B	/vir-vs-bcrx →
ALVO Alvotech	D+	58/100	—	—	—	-1.01%	$1.91B	/alvo-vs-bcrx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000882796

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $263.9M, operating cash flow of $347.4M, and free cash flow of $347.4M (+767.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, BCRX closed FY2025 with $514.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$263.9M	$347.4M	$347.4M	$514.2M	$0
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$88.9M	-$52.0M	-$52.0M	$490.4M	$314.9M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$226.5M	-$95.1M	-$95.1M	—	—

3. BCRX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BCRX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: BCRX) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 78/100 at a spot price of $8.52 (+1.79% 1D, market cap $2.18B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, BCRX ranks #22 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BCRX compare to VCEL and MESO in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), BCRX carries a Roarable B+ (78/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, VCEL (Vericel Corporation) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 133.0x, ROIC 3.4%, cap $2.20B) and MESO (Mesoblast Limited) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.04B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCRX leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while BCRX leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BCRX?

Per BCRX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000882796), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $263.9M in net income, and $347.4M in free cash flow against $514.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BCRX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BCRX last traded at $8.52 (+1.79% on volume of 4,519,653 shares), positioning the stock -1.27% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.63) and -2.63% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.75). Across its 52-week range of $6.23 to $11.22, BCRX sits at the 45.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($7.82 to $9.22).

BCRX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell BCRX stock right now?

BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX) currently earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy — BUY) with 78/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 85% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

What is BCRX's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

BCRX's 12-month base price target is $9.29 (range $6.99 to $11.78), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: BCRX RQD Cockpit BCRX 12M Forecast BCRX Earnings & Move BCRX Dividends & DRIP BCRX Insiders & 13F BCRX Whale Options BCRX Profit Sankey BCRX News & Why