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Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: Should I buy, hold, or sell ALHC stock right now?

Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold — HOLD) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (14% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

Q: What is ALHC's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ALHC's 12-month base price target is $8.39 (range $6.54 to $26.38), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

$8.06 -1.47% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.02

Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.67B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.02 (-0.45%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 2.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALHC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ALHC SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 2.9% FCF Margin ($113.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$7.55+9.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$8.28-2.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$8.06+0% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$8.06+1.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ALHC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, ALHC faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($9.87) or 200D SMA ($16.81) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($8.39) toward Bear Floor ($6.54).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALHC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ALHC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)

31.630 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

4.00>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

6 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE11% OF RANGE

L: $6$8.06H: $25

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: A-RQD 17 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on ALHC

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (85)

13.9% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 6.77% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (60)

Altman-Z 4.00 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (63)

25/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ALHC

✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ALHC Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ALHC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -64.24%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $7.96H $8.15L $7.17C $8.06VOL 13.82M

RES: $7.59SUP: $3.42SMA50: $9.87SMA200: $16.81

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALHC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ALHC Butterfly Map → + Track ALHC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

34.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +46.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALHC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALHC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALHC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALHC)

Health Care Rank #120 of 1016 ⚔️ PSNL vs ALHC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ALHC vs. PSNL, FRNM, TRUP, FTRE)

Industry: Medical Specialities (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) ranks #120 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #291 by equity capitalization ($1.67B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TRUP leads on earnings valuation at 68.2x trailing P/E, while ALHC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.9% ROIC and — gross margin. ALHC currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ALHC ACTIVE Alignment Healthcare Inc.	C+	67/100	—	—	13.9%	-1.47%	$1.67B	Benchmark Subject
PSNL Personalis Inc.	D-	36/100	—	22.7%	-35.0%	-0.47%	$1.70B	/psnl-vs-alhc →
FRNM Freenome Inc.	E	31/100	—	—	-3.4%	-4.32%	$1.38B	/frnm-vs-alhc →
TRUP Trupanion Inc.	C	64/100	68.2x	16.1%	3.1%	+2.27%	$1.32B	/trup-vs-alhc →
FTRE Fortrea Holdings Inc.	D-	35/100	—	—	-35.0%	-10.61%	$2.20B	/ftre-vs-alhc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001832466

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) reported GAAP revenue of $3.95B (+46.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.70B , and +119.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$724.0K, operating cash flow of $139.9M, and free cash flow of $113.1M (+1802.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALHC closed FY2025 with $1.07B in total assets against $323.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.00, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$3.95B	-$724.0K	$139.9M	$113.1M	$1.07B	$323.2M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.70B	-$128.0M	$34.8M	-$6.6M	$782.1M	$321.4M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.80B	-$148.0M	-$59.2M	-$59.2M	—	—

3. ALHC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALHC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Alignment Healthcare Inc. (NASDAQ: ALHC) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $8.06 (-1.47% 1D, market cap $1.67B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, ALHC ranks #120 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ALHC compare to PSNL and FRNM in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical Specialities), ALHC carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.9%. By comparison, PSNL (Personalis Inc.) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.70B) and FRNM (Freenome Inc.) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.4%, cap $1.38B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TRUP leads on earnings multiple (68.2x) while ALHC leads on capital efficiency (13.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALHC?

Per ALHC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001832466), Alignment Healthcare Inc. generated $3.95B in revenue (+46.1% YoY), -$724.0K in net income, and $113.1M in free cash flow against $1.07B in total assets and $323.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ALHC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALHC last traded at $8.06 (-1.47% on volume of 13,586,844 shares), positioning the stock -18.34% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.87) and -52.05% below its 200-day simple moving average ($16.81). Across its 52-week range of $6.01 to $25.12, ALHC sits at the 10.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.6 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($7.05 to $9.07).

ALHC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell ALHC stock right now?

Alignment Healthcare Inc. (ALHC) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold — HOLD) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (14% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is ALHC's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ALHC's 12-month base price target is $8.39 (range $6.54 to $26.38), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: ALHC RQD Cockpit ALHC 12M Forecast ALHC Earnings & Move ALHC Dividends & DRIP ALHC Insiders & 13F ALHC Whale Options ALHC Profit Sankey ALHC News & Why