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Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (ALDX) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: Should I buy, hold, or sell ALDX stock right now?

Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (ALDX) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 50/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

Q: What is ALDX's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ALDX's 12-month base price target is $0.64 (range $0.5 to $6.23), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

$0.66 -3.58% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.65

Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (ALDX) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $39.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.65 (-0.83%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ALDX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ALDX SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 14 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$0.92-23.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$0.70-7.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$0.65+1.5% Next Q

Current

Grade D$0.66-1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (58) → D (50)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ALDX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ALDX currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.15) and Max Pain ($0.69) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.23.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ALDX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ALDX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)

24.430 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE2% OF RANGE

L: $1$0.66H: $6

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 6 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on ALDX

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (30)

-35.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (52)

19/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ALDX

✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ALDX)

✓Walkthrough of ALDX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ALDX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -56.58%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN

2026-10-30O $0.67H $0.68L $0.55C $0.66VOL 896.6K

RES: $1.30SUP: $0.99SMA50: $1.15SMA200: $2.28

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ALDX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ALDX Butterfly Map → + Track ALDX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ALDX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ALDX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ALDX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ALDX)

Health Care Rank #351 of 1016 ⚔️ ATHE vs ALDX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ALDX vs. ATHE, GRDX, GRCE, SCYX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (ALDX) ranks #351 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #776 by equity capitalization ($39.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ALDX leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while GRCE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -18.9% ROIC and — gross margin. ATHE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 58/100 (D+) compared with ALDX at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ALDX ACTIVE Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc.	D	50/100	—	—	-35.0%	-3.58%	$39.8M	Benchmark Subject
ATHE Alterity Therapeutics Limited	D+	58/100	—	—	—	+2.93%	$40.7M	/athe-vs-aldx →
GRDX GridAI Technologies Corp.	E	26/100	—	-30.0%	-20.0%	-5.38%	$38.9M	/grdx-vs-aldx →
GRCE Grace Therapeutics Inc.	D-	35/100	—	—	-18.9%	-3.48%	$40.8M	/grce-vs-aldx →
SCYX SCYNEXIS Inc.	E	34/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.28%	$38.4M	/scyx-vs-aldx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001341235

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (ALDX) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$33.8M, operating cash flow of -$33.3M, and free cash flow of -$33.3M (+22.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, ALDX closed FY2025 with $72.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$33.8M	-$33.3M	-$33.3M	$72.1M	$0
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$55.9M	-$43.2M	-$43.2M	$104.6M	$15.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$37.5M	-$30.3M	-$30.3M	—	—

3. ALDX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ALDX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: ALDX) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $0.66 (-3.58% 1D, market cap $39.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, ALDX ranks #351 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ALDX compare to ATHE and GRDX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ALDX carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ATHE (Alterity Therapeutics Limited) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $40.7M) and GRDX (GridAI Technologies Corp.) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -20.0%, cap $38.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALDX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while GRCE leads on capital efficiency (-18.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ALDX?

Per ALDX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001341235), Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$33.8M in net income, and -$33.3M in free cash flow against $72.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ALDX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ALDX last traded at $0.66 (-3.58% on volume of 418,108 shares), positioning the stock -42.61% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.15) and -71.05% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.28). Across its 52-week range of $0.55 to $5.93, ALDX sits at the 2.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 24.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.74).

ALDX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell ALDX stock right now?

Aldeyra Therapeutics Inc. (ALDX) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 50/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is ALDX's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ALDX's 12-month base price target is $0.64 (range $0.5 to $6.23), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: ALDX RQD Cockpit ALDX 12M Forecast ALDX Earnings & Move ALDX Dividends & DRIP ALDX Insiders & 13F ALDX Whale Options ALDX Profit Sankey ALDX News & Why