Micron's $150 Billion Boogeyman Has a Wafer Problem (And It's Not Micron's)
Everybody's screaming that $150 billion in fab spending will drown the memory market by 2027, as if memory makers have never once been dumb in a group. But HBM eats wafers like a teenage boy eats pizza, and that changes the math the doomsayers are doing on their cocktail napkins.
- Roarable rates Micron (MU) a STRONG BUY at $108.50 with a $142.00 target, an RQD Score of 83/100, and a forward P/E of just 13.8x. That's a bargain price on a business the market still treats like a commodity.
- The bear case counts dollars of capex. The bull case counts wafers. HBM3e consumes roughly 3x the silicon of regular DRAM per bit, so a big chunk of that $150B gets swallowed just keeping up with HBM, not flooding the shelves with cheap memory.
- Quality is showing up in the numbers: ROIC 19.4%, gross margin 46.2%, Profitability grade A, and 91% of EPS revisions heading up in 90 days. Analysts are quietly raising their hands and saying 'oops, we were too low.'