Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone
$431.81 -1.75% NYSE • Public Delayed / 60s Snapshot
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The underlying business is intact, so current owners don’t need to panic-sell—but mixed big-money flow or rich pricing means new buyers can afford to wait for either a pullback or a B-or-higher upgrade.
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $2.24T
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS TUG-OF-WAR:50% Call Buyers ($92.5M)
50% PutsMax Pain: $423.00
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR
Drag to Test Your TSM Position Size: $10,000
Shares at $431.81: 23.2 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $348.94
$8,081
$-1,919 (-19.2%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $447.36
$10,360
+$360 (+3.6%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $527.88
$12,225
+$2,225 (+22.2%)
Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)
Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
| Wall Street Firm | Stance | 12M Target | 1Y Accuracy | Track Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk | HOLD | $465 | 74% | A |
| Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead | BUY | $496 | 69% | B |
| JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research | HOLD | $398 | 58% | C |
🔴 SUNDAY NIGHT PREP • 7:00 PM ETHosted Live by Perry Belcher & Guest Trading Systems Desk
Today's Top 3 RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Setups (Live TSM Tape Review)
- ✓Live breakdown of today’s highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts
- ✓1 urgent Red-Light accounting trap to cut from your watchlist immediately
- ✓Bring any ticker to live Q&A—we run it through the 5-Pillar RQD Radar on screen
RQD INSIDER CLUB UPGRADE$49/YEAR
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TSM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.54%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $414.1H $418.1L $400.1C $406.1VOL 21.91M
RES: $489.9SUP: $355.8SMA50: $434.9SMA200: $400.2
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
TSM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
15.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -3.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
TRIGGERED · CoWoS Leader Ascending Channel
Trigger: $425.33 • Invalidation: $402.45
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
TSM → AAPL Confirmed Filing
Apple sources 100% of custom A-series iPhone SoCs, M-series Mac/iPad processors, and Private Cloud Compute silicon from TSMC leading-edge 3nm (N3B/N3E) and upcoming 2nm nodes.
TSM → AMD Confirmed Filing
AMD relies on TSMC 5nm/4nm/3nm logic wafers and CoWoS packaging to manufacture EPYC Turin data-center CPUs and Instinct MI300X/MI325X/MI355X AI GPU chiplets.
LRCX → TSM Confirmed Filing
3D chiplet stacking, through-silicon vias (TSVs) in HBM, and Gate-All-Around selective atomic-layer etching sharply increase Lam Research etch and deposition intensity per wafer start.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
💡 Starter Kit: Advanced Foundry, HBM & Custom Silicon (mara-quenwick)
🏛️ ENACTED_FINAL_RULE: BIS Export Administration Regulations: Advanced AI Compute & HBM Semiconductor Controls (Department of Commerce — Bureau of Industry and Security (15 CFR Parts 734, 740, 744))
🏛️ ENACTED_FINAL_RULE: CHIPS Direct Funding Agreements & Treasury Section 48D 25% Semiconductor Investment Tax Credit (Department of Commerce (CHIPS Program Office) & U.S. Treasury / IRS (26 CFR Part 1))
🎬 Curated Video: Nvidia Data-Center Revenue & AI Accelerator Margin Breakdown Post-Earnings (CNBC Television) →
TSM Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhat is TSM's 12-month stock price target?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $447.36 (+3.6% from $431.81), with a bull-case target of $527.88 and a bear-case floor of $348.94.
Is TSM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?
Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates TSM C+ (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 66/100.