Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials
$34.43 -3.85% NASDAQ • Public Delayed / 60s Snapshot
Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) receives a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) and flashes a Red SELL / AVOID warning (61/100 RQD Confidence). Our SEC filing scanner spotted paper earnings outpacing real operating cash flow (-175.8% (NI vs OCF)) while unpaid customer invoices grew—a classic sign to step aside until cash flow catches up.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $22.62B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS TUG-OF-WAR:48% Call Buyers ($2.2M)
52% PutsMax Pain: $34.00
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)
How SMCI Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit
Free Cash Flow:$1.53B (7% FCF Margin)
Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory
■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $7.12B
FY24
Rev $14.99B
FY25
Rev $21.97B
| Fiscal Year | Revenue | Gross Margin | Op Margin | Net Profit | Free Cash Flow | ROIC % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $21.97B | 11.1% | 5.7% | $1.05B | $1.53B | 8% |
| FY 2024 | $14.99B | 13.8% | 8.1% | $1.15B | -$2.61B | 15% |
| FY 2023 | $7.12B | 44% | 10.7% | $640.0M | $343.0M | 8% |
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SMCI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +20.26%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $32.59H $33.17L $31.33C $32.95VOL 38.25M
RES: $47.32SUP: $31.83SMA50: $38.23SMA200: $32.67
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
SMCI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
15.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +46.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
INVALIDATED · 200D Mean-Reversion Squeeze Watch
Trigger: $36.74 • Invalidation: $34.10
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
NVDA → SMCI Confirmed Filing
Super Micro integrates NVIDIA HGX and Blackwell GPUs into rack-scale Direct Liquid Cooling (DLC) servers, driving rapid top-line revenue expansion but intense working-capital and margin sensitivity.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
💡 Share-Count Creep & Refinancing Watch: Separating Real Free Cash Flow from SBC Dilution (gideon-ashmere)
💡 Starter Kit: Forensic Dilution & Refinancing Stress Watch (gideon-ashmere)
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SMCI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
SMCI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDHow profitable is Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI)?
In FY 2025 (10-K), SMCI converted $22.0B of revenue into a 11.1% gross margin, 5.7% operating margin, and $1.5B in free cash flow (7% FCF margin).