Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$62.05 +0.10% NASDAQ • Public Delayed / 60s Snapshot

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The underlying business is intact, so current owners don’t need to panic-sell—but mixed big-money flow or rich pricing means new buyers can afford to wait for either a pullback or a B-or-higher upgrade.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $254.92B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510068
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk C
Cash (19)Whales (13)SEC (16)Macro (10)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+18.5% Base Target
$78 Bull$74 Base$65 Bear
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WHALE OPTIONS TUG-OF-WAR:34% Call Buyers ($3.7M)
66% PutsMax Pain: $67.00
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How NFLX Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$9.46B (20.9% FCF Margin)
Revenue$45.18BGross Profit $21.91B (48.5%)Cost of Sales $23.28BOp Profit $13.33B (29.5%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $8.58BNet Profit$10.98B (24.3%)Tax/Other $2.35B

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow
FY21
Rev $29.70B
FY22
Rev $31.62B
FY23
Rev $33.72B
FY24
Rev $39.00B
FY25
Rev $45.18B
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$45.18B48.5%29.5%$10.98B$9.46B32.9%
FY 2024$39.00B46.1%26.7%$8.71B$6.92B25.3%
FY 2023$33.72B41.5%20.6%$5.41B$6.93B19.6%
FY 2022$31.62B39.4%17.8%$4.49B$1.62B14.8%
FY 2021$29.70B41.6%20.9%$5.12B-$132.0M19.4%
FY 2020$25.00B38.9%18.3%$2.76B$1.93B18.9%
SEC 10-K YEAR-OVER-YEAR FINE-PRINT DIFF SCANNERRisk Trajectory: ESCALATING

In accession 0001065280-26-000034, Netflix explicitly acknowledges advertising friction as an emerging churn driver while stripping out quarterly seasonality disclosures, reflecting structural maturation in mature subscriber territories. Management deleted per-membership revenue references in fixed content leverage warnings, signaling that monetization per subscriber has hit pricing resistance against aggressive digital competitors. The redline changes confirm escalating top-line deceleration risks and elevated churn sensitivity as ad-tier inventory expands.

AD-TIER CHURN AND ADVERTISER DISSATISFACTION (CRITICAL)

Management expanded the explicit drivers of subscriber churn to formally include ad-load dissatisfaction. This reveals that commercial ad insertions on the ad-supported tier are degrading user retention, directly capping ad-tier CPM pricing power and threatening core subscriber durability.

MONETIZATION CEILING AND FIXED CONTENT COST OPERATING LEVERAGE (MEDIUM)

The quiet deletion of '(per membership)' reveals that ARM/ARPU optimization has peaked as a standalone margin shock-absorber. Netflix can no longer rely on repeated per-user price increases to offset massive fixed sports rights and content amortizations without accelerating net churn.

OPEN PLATFORM COMPETITION AND SEASONALITY DELETION (MEDIUM)

Deleting the predictable Q4 seasonality disclosure signals that subscriber additions have decoupled from historical holiday cadence and become lumpier. Concurrently elevating 'open content platforms' (YouTube/TikTok) shows Netflix bleeding aggregate screen time to lower-cost, algorithmic content platforms.

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NFLX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -32.57%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $65.16H $65.50L $61.39C $62.08VOL 242.69M
RES: $78.67SMA50: $72.67SMA200: $81.60
$105.9$93.86$81.79$69.72$57.64RES $78.67$62.082026-05-012026-06-122026-07-312026-09-112026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NFLX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
-1.11% YoY Shares

SEC XBRL FY2024 → FY2025: Net share cannibal / buyback tailwind.

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
10.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +14.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NFLX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NFLX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
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NFLX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), NFLX converted $45.2B of revenue into a 48.5% gross margin, 29.5% operating margin, and $9.5B in free cash flow (20.9% FCF margin).