The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) Whale Options Tug-of-War, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$40.57 +3.87% NASDAQ • Public Delayed / 60s Snapshot

The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) receives a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) and flashes a Red SELL / AVOID warning (55/100 RQD Confidence). Our SEC filing scanner spotted paper earnings outpacing real operating cash flow (+99.3% (NI vs OCF)) while unpaid customer invoices grew—a classic sign to step aside until cash flow catches up.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $14.46B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510055
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (4)Whales (10)SEC (8)Macro (16)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.4% Base Target
$71 Bull$40 Base$31 Bear
🔴 SUNDAY NIGHT PREP • 7:00 PM ET
WHALE OPTIONS TUG-OF-WAR:62% Call Buyers ($2.8M)
38% PutsMax Pain: $40.00
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
62% Calls / 38% Puts
Put/Call Ratio: 0.62x
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
$40.00
-1.4% vs. current $40.57 spot
OPTIONS-IMPLIED VOLATILITY MOVE
±6.5%
Expected event band around $40.57

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (CG)

$35
6,989C / 9,964P
$37.5
6,989C / 9,964P
$40
16,345C / 9,964P
$42.5
16,345C / 4,307P
$45
16,345C / 4,307P
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Red-Light Warning Desk: How Pros Profit When Overhyped Stocks Crack (Featuring CG)

  • ✓Live walkthrough of CG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside levels
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CG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -19.75%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $40.41H $40.48L $39.70C $40.18VOL 2.64M
RES: $51.44SUP: $33.80SMA50: $41.47SMA200: $47.20
$58.88$52.52$46.16$39.80$33.44RES $51.44SUP $33.80$40.182026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
11.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -11.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

CG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is CG's options max pain and whale flow sentiment?

Unusual options sweeps in CG show 62% bullish call premium versus 38% put premium, centered near a $40 max-pain strike.