Stock Ratings / Communication Services / NSSC

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NAPCO Security Technologies Inc. (NSSC) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$39.98 +0.81% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.13

NAPCO Security Technologies Inc. (NSSC) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (56% profit margin, 46% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $1.43B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $40.14 (+0.39%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 20/20 (A+) • 28.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NSSC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NSSC SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+20/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 28.3% FCF Margin ($51.4M FCF) & 55.6% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 26.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$36.14-1.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$35.57+9.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$38.82+3% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$39.98+6.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (62) → B- (70)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NSSC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, NSSC faces multiple-compression risk if 32.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 53.1% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($36.51) or 200D SMA ($39.15) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($42.14) toward Bear Floor ($32.78).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NSSC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NSSC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

65.230 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

26.00>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

6 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE34% OF RANGE

L: $34$39.98H: $52

1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (56% profit margin and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: A+RQD 20 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 28 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on NSSC

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (98)

45.7% ROIC with 55.6% gross margin and 3.60% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BULLISH (80)

Altman-Z 26.00 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (57)

22/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 12/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like NSSC

✓Strong cash generator (56% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (NSSC Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

NSSC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -14.48%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $39.97H $40.11L $38.64C $39.98VOL 407.7K

RES: $46.85SUP: $34.92SMA50: $36.51SMA200: $39.15

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NSSC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NSSC Butterfly Map → + Track NSSC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

25.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -3.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NSSC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NSSC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NSSC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NSSC)

Communication Services Rank #14 of 132 ⚔️ ATEX vs NSSC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Communication Services Peer Comparison (NSSC vs. ATEX, ZD, IDT, AD)

Industry: Telecommunications Equipment (81 Tracked Issuers)

Across 132 tracked Communication Services securities in the Roarable RQD universe, NAPCO Security Technologies Inc. (NSSC) ranks #14 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #61 by equity capitalization ($1.43B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, IDT leads on earnings valuation at 25.0x trailing P/E, while IDT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 61.2% ROIC and 36.2% gross margin. IDT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with NSSC at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NSSC ACTIVE NAPCO Security Technologies Inc.	B-	70/100	32.9x	55.6%	45.7%	+0.81%	$1.43B	Benchmark Subject
ATEX Anterix Inc.	B+	76/100	—	—	35.9%	+4.39%	$1.80B	/atex-vs-nssc →
ZD Ziff Davis Inc.	C+	68/100	40.5x	85.8%	7.6%	+1.05%	$1.92B	/zd-vs-nssc →
IDT IDT Corporation (Class B)	B+	78/100	25.0x	36.2%	61.2%	+0.17%	$2.03B	/idt-vs-nssc →
AD Array Digital Infrastructure Inc.	D+	58/100	40.4x	51.2%	-3.0%	+1.73%	$2.80B	/ad-vs-nssc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0000069633

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), NAPCO Security Technologies Inc. (NSSC) reported GAAP revenue of $181.6M (-3.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $188.8M , and +6.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $43.4M, operating cash flow of $53.5M, and free cash flow of $51.4M (+17.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, NSSC closed FY2025 with $212.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 26.00, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-06-30	$181.6M	$43.4M	$53.5M	$51.4M	$212.8M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-06-30	$188.8M	$49.8M	$45.4M	$43.8M	$202.7M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-06-30	$170.0M	$27.1M	$24.7M	$24.7M	—	—

3. NSSC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NSSC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, NAPCO Security Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: NSSC) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $39.98 (+0.81% 1D, market cap $1.43B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 20/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, NSSC ranks #14 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NSSC compare to ATEX and ZD in the Communication Services sector?

Within the Communication Services sector (Telecommunications Equipment), NSSC carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.9x, gross margin of 55.6%, and ROIC of 45.7%. By comparison, ATEX (Anterix Inc.) holds a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 35.9%, cap $1.80B) and ZD (Ziff Davis Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 40.5x, ROIC 7.6%, cap $1.92B). Among the 5-stock peer group, IDT leads on earnings multiple (25.0x) while IDT leads on capital efficiency (61.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NSSC?

Per NSSC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0000069633), NAPCO Security Technologies Inc. generated $181.6M in revenue (-3.8% YoY), $43.4M in net income, and $51.4M in free cash flow against $212.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (56% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NSSC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NSSC last traded at $39.98 (+0.81% on volume of 542,620 shares), positioning the stock +9.50% above its 50-day simple moving average ($36.51) and +2.12% above its 200-day simple moving average ($39.15). Across its 52-week range of $33.91 to $51.77, NSSC sits at the 34.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 65.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.5% ($37.78 to $42.18).

NSSC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell NSSC stock right now?

NAPCO Security Technologies Inc. (NSSC) currently earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy — BUY) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (56% profit margin, 46% return on capital) with steady institutional support.

What is NSSC's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

NSSC's 12-month base price target is $42.14 (range $32.78 to $54.36), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: NSSC RQD Cockpit NSSC 12M Forecast NSSC Earnings & Move NSSC Dividends & DRIP NSSC Insiders & 13F NSSC Whale Options NSSC Profit Sankey NSSC News & Why