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Home Bancorp Inc. (HBCP) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$60.61 -1.24% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $60.36

Home Bancorp Inc. (HBCP) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 54/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 54/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $483.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HBCP Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HBCP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Home Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: HBCP) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $60.61 (-1.24% 1D, market cap $483.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, HBCP ranks #587 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HBCP compare to AVBC and PBFS in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Banks), HBCP carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.6%. By comparison, AVBC (Avidia Bancorp Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.9%, cap $470.1M) and PBFS (Pioneer Bancorp Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 22.2x, ROIC 6.3%, cap $450.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NECB leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while NECB leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HBCP?

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Per HBCP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001436425), Home Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $46.1M in net income, and $44.3M in free cash flow against $3.49B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $60.36 (-0.41%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 1.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 54/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HBCP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (54/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HBCP SCORES 54/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$66.25-0.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$65.78-7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$61.20-1% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$60.61-0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (62) → D+ (54)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HBCP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HBCP currently carries a cautious 54/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($66.49) and Max Pain ($63.64) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $78.23.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HBCP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HBCP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 54%NO 46%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

36.130 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE38% OF RANGE

L: $52$60.61H: $75

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on HBCP

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (60)

10.6% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 9.18% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (48)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like HBCP

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HBCP)

✓Walkthrough of HBCP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

HBCP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.69%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-02O $61.44H $61.44L $60.61C $60.61VOL 127.0K

RES: $66.62SUP: $55.72SMA50: $66.49SMA200: $65.06

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HBCP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HBCP Butterfly Map → + Track HBCP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-0.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HBCP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HBCP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HBCP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HBCP)

Financials Rank #587 of 1096 ⚔️ AVBC vs HBCP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HBCP vs. AVBC, PBFS, NECB, GCBC)

Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Home Bancorp Inc. (HBCP) ranks #587 by composite RQD confidence (54/100, grade D+) and #712 by equity capitalization ($483.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NECB leads on earnings valuation at 9.0x trailing P/E, while NECB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. NECB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with HBCP at 54/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HBCP ACTIVE Home Bancorp Inc.	D+	54/100	10.5x	—	10.6%	-1.24%	$483.0M	Benchmark Subject
AVBC Avidia Bancorp Inc.	D+	57/100	—	—	-0.9%	-0.17%	$470.1M	/avbc-vs-hbcp →
PBFS Pioneer Bancorp Inc.	D+	57/100	22.2x	—	6.3%	-0.50%	$450.1M	/pbfs-vs-hbcp →
NECB NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc.	B-	71/100	9.0x	—	12.6%	-0.21%	$398.8M	/necb-vs-hbcp →
GCBC Greene County Bancorp Inc.	C+	67/100	19.6x	—	12.1%	-0.31%	$610.7M	/gcbc-vs-hbcp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001436425

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Home Bancorp Inc. (HBCP) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $46.1M, operating cash flow of $54.5M, and free cash flow of $44.3M (-0.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, HBCP closed FY2025 with $3.49B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$46.1M	$54.5M	$44.3M	$3.49B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$36.4M	$48.7M	$44.7M	$3.44B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$40.2M	$41.4M	$41.4M	—	—

3. HBCP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HBCP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does HBCP compare to AVBC and PBFS in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HBCP?

Where is HBCP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HBCP last traded at $60.61 (-1.24% on volume of 75,728 shares), positioning the stock -8.84% below its 50-day simple moving average ($66.49) and -6.84% below its 200-day simple moving average ($65.06). Across its 52-week range of $52.07 to $74.50, HBCP sits at the 38.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.6% ($57.22 to $64.00).

HBCP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell HBCP stock right now?

Home Bancorp Inc. (HBCP) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 54/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 11x P/E (11% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is HBCP's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

HBCP's 12-month base price target is $59.52 (range $46.43 to $78.23), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: HBCP RQD Cockpit HBCP 12M Forecast HBCP Earnings & Move HBCP Dividends & DRIP HBCP Insiders & 13F HBCP Whale Options HBCP Profit Sankey HBCP News & Why