Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$183.29 +0.70% NYSE • Public Delayed / 60s Snapshot

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 72/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 10% return on capital) with steady institutional support. Even if the broader market gets choppy, the company’s underlying cash engine and big-money support put the odds in buyers’ favor.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $748.46B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510072
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk B+
Cash (14)Whales (13)SEC (14)Macro (17)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+18% Base Target
$233 Bull$216 Base$194 Bear
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WHALE OPTIONS TUG-OF-WAR:20% Call Buyers ($2.8M)
80% PutsMax Pain: $145.00
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How XOM Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$23.61B (7.1% FCF Margin)
Revenue$332.24BGross Profit $172.76B (52%)Cost of Sales $159.47BOp Profit $41.27B (12.4%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $131.50BNet Profit$28.84B (8.7%)Tax/Other $12.42B

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow
FY21
Rev $285.64B
FY22
Rev $413.68B
FY23
Rev $344.58B
FY24
Rev $349.58B
FY25
Rev $332.24B
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$332.24B52%12.4%$28.84B$23.61B11.3%
FY 2024$349.58B52%14%$33.68B$30.72B13.7%
FY 2023$344.58B52%15.3%$36.01B$33.45B19.4%
FY 2022$413.68B52%18.8%$55.74B$58.39B29.8%
FY 2021$285.64B52%10.9%$23.04B$36.05B11.9%
FY 2020$181.50B52%-15.9%-$22.44B-$2.61B-11.3%
SEC 10-K YEAR-OVER-YEAR FINE-PRINT DIFF SCANNERRisk Trajectory: ESCALATING

Exxon Mobil Corp's FY2025 Form 10-K (0000034088-26-000045) reflects escalating legal and operational tail risks centered on sovereign boundary disputes, upstream capital commitments, and expanding environmental litigation liability. Legal verbiage has been fortified against cross-border maritime border friction affecting the offshore Guyana Liza development, alongside tightened margin guidance across the Product Solutions chemical refining operations. In addition, contractual purchase and FPSO leasing obligations have expanded fixed financial commitments amidst softer refining crack spreads.

SOVEREIGN BORDER FRICTION & GUYANA OFFSHORE ARBITRATION (CRITICAL)

Management is explicitly hedging against rising Venezuelan territorial friction over the Essequibo region and ongoing arbitration surrounding the Stabroek block ownership structure, warning investors that sovereign interference could physically interrupt deepwater production or legally encumber their highest-return upstream assets.

PRODUCT SOLUTIONS MARGIN COMPRESSION & OVERCAPACITY (MEDIUM)

Downstream and petrochemical margins are rolling over as large-scale Asian petrochemical additions cause oversupply; management is preparing Wall Street for structural midstream and refining margin headwinds following several years of elevated refining margins.

OFFSHORE FPSO LEASE & CAPITAL PURCHASE OBLIGATIONS (MEDIUM)

The company has locked in massive non-cancelable operational leverage via long-term take-or-pay vessel and infrastructure contracts with offshore contractors, raising break-even hurdle rates and cash outflow rigidity if crude prices decline.

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XOM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +22.59%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $181.9H $188.5L $179.8C $187.3VOL 70.55M
RES: $172.5SUP: $163.9SMA50: $167.8SMA200: $154.6
$192.7$175.4$158.1$140.8$123.6RES $172.5SUP $163.9$187.32026-05-012026-06-122026-07-312026-09-112026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

XOM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
+ 0.16% YoY Shares

SEC XBRL FY2024 → FY2025: Disciplined near-zero share dilution.

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
22.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -4.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on XOM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for XOM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

XOM Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), XOM converted $332.2B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 12.4% operating margin, and $23.6B in free cash flow (7.1% FCF margin).