Why UPST Stock surged +2.90% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$24.84 +2.90% NASDAQ • Public Delayed / 60s Snapshot

Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) receives a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) and flashes a Red SELL / AVOID warning (54/100 RQD Confidence). Our SEC filing scanner spotted paper earnings outpacing real operating cash flow (+261.7% (NI vs OCF)) while unpaid customer invoices grew—a classic sign to step aside until cash flow catches up.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.42B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
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RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510054
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Cash
SEC
Whale
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (4)Whales (10)SEC (8)Macro (15)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.8% Base Target
$55 Bull$24 Base$19 Bear
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WHALE OPTIONS TUG-OF-WAR:55% Call Buyers ($2.5M)
45% PutsMax Pain: $24.00
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Why UPST Stock surged +2.90% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) surged +2.90% to $24.84 as options desks priced 55% call premium vs. 45% put protection around the $24 max-pain magnet. Accounting Warning: Paper earnings outpaced operating cash flow (+261.7% (NI vs OCF)) as receivables rose.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($22.21 – $52.1) with RSI-14 at 43.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Whale Options Positioning: $2.5M in bullish call flow vs. $2.0M in put flow (Put/Call 0.81x, implied earnings swing ±6.6%).
  • ▸Primary SEC / Cross-Feed Trigger: UPST NI Up 141.7% vs OCF Down -120%: Cash Conversion Gap Hits +261.7%
Live UPST Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo • 3d ago
Alerus (ALRS) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates

Alerus (ALRS) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +5.97% and +6.71%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?

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  • ✓Live walkthrough of UPST's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside levels
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UPST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -27.11%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $24.16H $24.38L $22.68C $23.02VOL 4.28M
RES: $26.33SUP: $20.97SMA50: $25.33SMA200: $29.88
$49.21$41.89$34.57$27.26$19.94RES $26.33SUP $20.97$23.022026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UPST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
33.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +64.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UPST today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UPST. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UPST today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

UPST Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

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Why is UPST stock moving today?

Why UPST Stock surged +2.90% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Accounting Warning: Paper earnings outpaced operating cash flow (+261.7% (NI vs OCF)) as receivables rose.