Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Whale Options Tug-of-War, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps
$1,373.70 +6.63% NYSE • Public Delayed / 60s Snapshot
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 72/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (84% profit margin, 32% return on capital) with steady institutional support. Even if the broader market gets choppy, the company’s underlying cash engine and big-money support put the odds in buyers’ favor.
ROARABLE B • BUY
Cap $1.33T
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+23% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS TUG-OF-WAR:45% Call Buyers ($5.4M)
55% PutsMax Pain: $1,200.00
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
45% Calls / 55% Puts
Put/Call Ratio: 1.48x
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
$1,200.00
-12.64% vs. current $1,373.70 spot
OPTIONS-IMPLIED VOLATILITY MOVE
±6.8%
Expected event band around $1,373.70
Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (LLY)
$1420
0C / 310P
$1440
0C / 127P
$1450
873C / 0P
$1480
303C / 0P
$1540
161C / 0P
$1580
275C / 0P
Wide-Open Unusual Whale Options Sweep Tape (LLY)
| Contract / Exp | Type | Strike | Vol / OI | $ Premium | IV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LLY261106C01450000EXP 2026-11-06 | CALL | $1,450 | 2.5x | $947.0K | 33.3% |
| LLY261106P01400000EXP 2026-11-06 | PUT | $1,400 | 34.1x | $899.3K | 36.7% |
| LLY261120P01340000EXP 2026-11-20 | PUT | $1,340 | 7.7x | $601.2K | 35% |
| LLY261204C01480000EXP 2026-12-04 | CALL | $1,480 | 25.3x | $942.3K | 30.6% |
| LLY270219C01580000EXP 2027-02-19 | CALL | $1,580 | 7.2x | $1.7M | 35.2% |
| LLY261113C01450000EXP 2026-11-13 | CALL | $1,450 | 5.9x | $601.3K | 33.3% |
| LLY270617P01420000EXP 2027-06-17 | PUT | $1,420 | 11.3x | $3.1M | 37.1% |
| LLY270219C01540000EXP 2027-02-19 | CALL | $1,540 | 2.3x | $1.2M | 35.2% |
| LLY261218P01440000EXP 2026-12-18 | PUT | $1,440 | 12.7x | $1.0M | 33.1% |
| LLY261120P01420000EXP 2026-11-20 | PUT | $1,420 | 8.2x | $498.2K | 34% |
| LLY270416P01200000EXP 2027-04-16 | PUT | $1,200 | 2.8x | $480.2K | 37.3% |
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LLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +47.15%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $1,286.4H $1,449.7L $1,260.3C $1,417.5VOL 15.63M
RES: $1,364.7SMA50: $1,197.1SMA200: $1,091.2
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
LLY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
-0.53% YoY Shares
SEC XBRL FY2024 → FY2025: Net share cannibal / buyback tailwind.
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
35.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +45.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
DEVELOPING · Incretin Capacity Base Reclaim
Trigger: $1452.98 • Invalidation: $1349.50
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
WST → LLY Confirmed Filing
West Pharmaceutical Services manufactures NovaPure fluoropolymer-coated elastomer plungers and cartridge seals required inside sterile single-dose and multi-dose GLP-1 auto-injector pens.
TMO → LLY Confirmed Filing
Following Novo Holdings acquisition of Catalent fill-finish sites, Eli Lilly and rival GLP-1 developers increasingly rely on Thermo Fisher Patheon sterile fill-finish lines to clear injectable pen bottlenecks.
LLY → NVO Confirmed Filing
Eli Lilly dual GIP/GLP-1 agonist tirzepatide (Zepbound/Mounjaro) demonstrated superior head-to-head weight loss vs. Novo Nordisk semaglutide (Wegovy) in SURMOUNT-5, intensifying PBM rebate competition.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
💡 Friday Evidence Audit: What Confirmed, What Stalled & Where Options Overpriced the Move (felix-orven)
💡 Starter Kit: Cash-Fortress Zero-Dilution Compounders (ellis-vennor)
🏛️ COMMENT_RULEMAKING: CMS Contract Year Medicare Advantage Capitation Benchmark & Part D GLP-1 Coverage Rulemaking (Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (HHS — 42 CFR Parts 422 & 423))
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LLY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
LLY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhat is LLY's options max pain and whale flow sentiment?
Unusual options sweeps in LLY show 45% bullish call premium versus 55% put premium, centered near a $1200 max-pain strike.